Staring with the obvious.
District 4 - Unless there is Trump-like anti-establishment dissatisfaction in the air, Councilman Bob Doherty should retain his seat. It's just a simple math equation. We don't know the equation. We're more soft science but the enrollment figures makes the outcome inevitable.
District 3 - We think this one will be close. Sue Steele has lived in that district for a long time and she works. We'll err on the side of Republican Dean Bodnar winning a narrow victory through the power of incumbency and his Gary Cooper-like masculinity. Bodnar has never owned District 3.
District 2 - This one is hard. In a normal time and place, we could see incumbent Anastasia Robertson losing big. This isn't a normal time or place. Her (sorry Ms. Mantello, we mean Anastasia) opponent isn't normal either. Mark McGrath has high name recognition which for him is a blessing and a curse. Mark, the former District 2 councilman, has slowly spiraled from crazy to bat shit crazy these past few years. A McGrath victory is like having your drunk uncle move in, fun at first but tiresome in a week or two.This one is like a choice between end stage pancreatic cancer and end stage lung cancer. McGrath by an inch. If the WFP is out in force, it could be pancreatic cancer.
District 5 - This should be Kopka but for the enmity shown her by current Councilman Ken Zalewski. Zalewski seems to be on a mission to oust the councilwoman. It would have been nice if Ken had taken this much effort to defeat Republicans. So, we think Bissember, does effect the outcome. Tom Casey is the new councilman. If that happens and Ken wrings his hands in despair, all we can say is, "we told you so." Zalewski does not care about his legacy.
Districts 1 and 6 - The bookends of council districts. These are toss-ups and a split is very possible although we can't say which way. If Ryan wins in District 1 then D'Arcy will have a good night. If Ryan loses to Gulli, D'Arcy may still win down in 6. Madden should run strong here and help D'Arcy.
The likely outcome here is 4-2 GOP.
In the At-Large race, Team Troy should have little impact. We see a good night for Carmella, as Troy voters may cast a sympathy vote. Mantello wants this so bad she is running television ads. Television ads for a council seat? This behavior must have an official DSM-V diagnosis. Cary Dresher (D) should run strong, as will Erin Sullivan-Teta. They should put away the remainder of the field handily. Cummings and Kownack will grab a good chunk of votes, to the detriment of Carol Weaver (D).
That leaves a 5-4 GOP council.
We admit to being overly cautious. We try and ignore the political rah-rah types that believe all their candidates will all win by crazy, unheard of margins. If this is now a solid Democratic town after its flirtation with Tutunjian for a few years, then it may be 6-3 or 7-2 Democrat. We're just not feeling it. Everything has to break the Democrats way for that to happen. A more balanced council will be a net positive for Troy and the Democratic party.
Our accuracy rate is 66.6% percent. In 2007 we predicted most of the winners. We did have Bauer (at-large), Collier (6) and Krogh (5) winning.
28 comments:
You're nuts. Agreed Dems will lose one at large to Mantello, lose D2, and possibly lose D5. But they pick up D1. Worst case, 5-4 Dems.
And yes Madden will win, but how close is it gonna be now that Kathy Jimino defected? Answer: Less close.
You're saying Bodnar loses, Ryan and D'Arcy win. Interesting.
The key is how many Republicans stay home because of the Gordon issue. That could tilt the balance for the Dems. And whose favoring WFP might finally get it and pull the Dem lever to avoid the obvious.
Agree with 9:10. Dems maintain control with Madden victorious by a larger margin than most people think! Gordon's campaign crashed after the audio was released. It burned after Jimino endorsed Madden. If rumors are true, after Team Troy makes their announcement today, Rodney is also finished. Congrats Dems!
He said Bodnar wins.
I meant 9:10. he/she seems to think Steele beats Bodnar.
No dumbass. Did 9:10 say Dems pick up D3? No it did not.
Demo,
I have Madden winning by 18% - 20%. Crazy? Yes but I'm sticking to it. Please note the time and content of this post. Can I win a prize or something if I'm right? A little shout out will suffice.
Greased Weasel
The At Large Winners: Mantello (R), Dresher (D) & Teta-Sullivan (D)
District 1: Ryan (D) wins in a squeaker over Gulli (R).
District 2: McGrath (R) takes this, and mercifully rids the Council of Robertson (WFP).
District 3: Bodnar (R) wins by a hair.
District 4: Dumbo Doherty (D/WFP) wins here, much to the detriment of the rest of Troy's residents.
District 5: Casey(R) takes this and precipitates Kopka's (D) removal from the Council after 4 contentious years. Her downfall has been dramatic.
District 6: A classic toss up between Donohue (R) and D'Arcy (D). No prediction here.
The biggest losers: The raggedy Team Troy WFP bunch led by Wiltshire. That being said, the big gimmicky redhead (Cummings) and Kownack will likely garner a significant # of votes to act as spoilers.
When and where did Jimino endorse Madden?
Here's a prediction, McDouchion won't get his tax judgments lifted before the election. Come on, Kev, we can't carry you forever.
Madden is gonna win. I'm thinking more comfortably than most think.Ryan wins 1. McGrath wins 2. Bodnar closely in 3. Doherty unfortunately in 4. I think Kopka will win extremely close in 5. I don't know either in 6 but it tilts Democratically so I'll go D'Arcy. At large unfortunately way be looking at Carmella..Jeez I wish she'd take up knitting and leave us all alone in Troy. Sullivan-Teta runs strong in predominately Republican Lansingburgh and actually has someone helping her that knows what he's doing so she wins and with the Independence line may be President. I think Weaver wins and Drescher loses because he's lined up against Madonna or Carmella or what ever she goes by. Hope I'm wrong and Drescher wins but I fear I'm right.
No shot of Ryan winning in 1. First off have any of you people meet this person? She's the most unqualified person running in Troy. Cox is smarter and I'm no Gully fan either. District 1 is where Jim will do his best numbers and this kill Ryan shot.
A vote for Teta-Sullivan is a second vote for Kopka. That woman couldn't find her way out of a paper bag if Lynn wasn't giving her directions, Lynn nods and Erin acts like a dog at a conformation.
No tweets from McNoAssion about the Jimino endorsement. Whatsa matter Kev? Hands too busy doing something else? Your boy is losing, dummy. No tit job for you. Guess you won't be paying off all those tax warrants and the rest of us hardworking folks will have to pick up your lazy-ass slack for another four years. How about you do the world a favor and throw yourself off the Collar City bridge. Tango down.
I can't wait for January 1 when the city is finally rid of that phony shitbird Jim Gordon.
When this is all over Gordon will be divorced, homeless, and lucky to get a job as a urine scrubbing specialist in Barker Park. You never should have run, Jimbo. If it had been Carmella the GOP would be skating to mayoral victory right now. Y'all fucked up big time.
@6:34 wow you're obsessed with the little fella eh?
Now thats funny.
@ 7:23 I believe that's a fact. If Mirch and company didn't bury Campana four years ago it would have been Carmella too. Looks like her biggest obstruction seems to be the very people she takes her advice from.
Bottom line, Ken doesn't care two shits about giving the GOP a victory in D5. He'd put a schizophrenic axe murderer with basement full of anthrax in that seat if it meant sticking it to Wade. He's a vindictive little troll with a major inferiority complex.
We try to make him feel important. Twitter and this blog-- it's all he's got.
Can we start a Gordon divorce pool? I'll take January 2016.
This is a tough call. District 1 rides a heavy Rep turnout and Gulli takes the seat. Miss Amerikka hands D2 over to McGrath. Flip and coin and Bodnar takes D3 as the Team Troy anti-Steele vote decides. D4 is a walk for Doherty. D5 will go to Casey as Ken enacts his revenge. D6 will be very close, but Madden's vote gives D'Arcy a squeaker. At large may be closer than most think. Mantello gets a big vote as voters concede they screwed up four years ago. Sullivan-Teta easily takes a seat, but the other at-large seat will be close between Ashe-McPherson, but Drescher wins in a squeaker. Regardless, the council is populated by a sufficient number of responsible adults regardless of the results, so at least we are ahead of the last two years.
Surprisingly, no one has mentioned the Charter vote. Due to it's placement on the BACK of the ballot, it passes.
You're off on D1 but otherwise right on outcome (although not by how much). 5-4 Dems at worst. Charter amendment passes. Madden wins by a hair thanks to Gordon implosion.
11.13. Agreeing for the most part with me guarantees a good post. :) D1 and D6 can go either way. I have the mayor's race close, and those who think Madden wins big either have some insight the rest of us lack, or this is some very wishful thinking. Either way, one has to give Madden some credit. After a very marginal primary performance and what I thought was a very poor introduction to the race, he has certainly picked up his game.
I'll take the day after Valentines Day.
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