As is our annual tradition, we hereby reveal our predictions (not necessarily endorsements) for election 2015. We've already indicated that Madden will likely win, albeit by a close margin. Now, on to the Council races. We broke out the hashish, burned some incense and called in our crystal ball expert. We believe the GOP will have a better night than they've had in quite some time.
Staring with the obvious.
District 4 - Unless there is Trump-like anti-establishment dissatisfaction in the air, Councilman Bob Doherty should retain his seat. It's just a simple math equation. We don't know the equation. We're more soft science but the enrollment figures makes the outcome inevitable.
District 3 - We think this one will be close. Sue Steele has lived in that district for a long time and she works. We'll err on the side of Republican Dean Bodnar winning a narrow victory through the power of incumbency and his Gary Cooper-like masculinity. Bodnar has never owned District 3.
District 2 - This one is hard. In a normal time and place, we could see incumbent Anastasia Robertson losing big. This isn't a normal time or place. Her (sorry Ms. Mantello, we mean Anastasia) opponent isn't normal either. Mark McGrath has high name recognition which for him is a blessing and a curse. Mark, the former District 2 councilman, has slowly spiraled from crazy to bat shit crazy these past few years. A McGrath victory is like having your drunk uncle move in, fun at first but tiresome in a week or two.This one is like a choice between end stage pancreatic cancer and end stage lung cancer. McGrath by an inch. If the WFP is out in force, it could be pancreatic cancer.
District 5 - This should be Kopka but for the enmity shown her by current Councilman Ken Zalewski. Zalewski seems to be on a mission to oust the councilwoman. It would have been nice if Ken had taken this much effort to defeat Republicans. So, we think Bissember, does effect the outcome. Tom Casey is the new councilman. If that happens and Ken wrings his hands in despair, all we can say is, "we told you so." Zalewski does not care about his legacy.
Districts 1 and 6 - The bookends of council districts. These are toss-ups and a split is very possible although we can't say which way. If Ryan wins in District 1 then D'Arcy will have a good night. If Ryan loses to Gulli, D'Arcy may still win down in 6. Madden should run strong here and help D'Arcy.
The likely outcome here is 4-2 GOP.
In the At-Large race, Team Troy should have little impact. We see a good night for Carmella, as Troy voters may cast a sympathy vote. Mantello wants this so bad she is running television ads. Television ads for a council seat? This behavior must have an official DSM-V diagnosis. Cary Dresher (D) should run strong, as will Erin Sullivan-Teta. They should put away the remainder of the field handily. Cummings and Kownack will grab a good chunk of votes, to the detriment of Carol Weaver (D).
That leaves a 5-4 GOP council.
We admit to being overly cautious. We try and ignore the political rah-rah types that believe all their candidates will all win by crazy, unheard of margins. If this is now a solid Democratic town after its flirtation with Tutunjian for a few years, then it may be 6-3 or 7-2 Democrat. We're just not feeling it. Everything has to break the Democrats way for that to happen. A more balanced council will be a net positive for Troy and the Democratic party.
Our accuracy rate is 66.6% percent. In 2007 we predicted most of the winners. We did have Bauer (at-large), Collier (6) and Krogh (5) winning.