The City of Troy, New York, "Where Henry Hudson Turned Around."

Thursday, November 05, 2015

INSIDE THE NUMBERS



We aim to please here at the Troy Polloi. Late last night, we received a message we thought we would share.

Dear Democratus: I am so confused. The Democrats were split and the Republicans kept saying Gordon would win. Franco gave Gordon 3-1 odds, Wiltshire 5-1 odds and Madden 7-1.* But Madden won but the Republicans have a majority on the council but, but, but...Also, my mother-in-law came to visit and won't leave. Please explain all of this.
                                                                                          Confused in Troy

Dear Confused: We have assembled our crack squad of political statisticians, the very same that accurately predicted the election outcome. Let us take a trip into the numbers.

Not too much though. Numbers get boring after awhile. First congratulations to the winners and condolences to the defeated. The Democratic Party had a great night (not without some clouds on the horizon). The Republican Council Candidates had a great night (not without some clouds on the horizon).

Despite a challenge from the Working Families Party, the establishment Democratic candidate (who has never held office and who is not yet a registered Democrat) won easily against Republican candidate Jim Gordon. Technically, it was almost a landslide at an 8% spread (a landslide is 10%). Without Wiltshire in the race, it would have been a devastating defeat. The establishment Democrat (who has never run for office and who was an enrolled blank) also defeated the anti-establishment candidate (who was a two-term councilman, Council President and a registered democrat) easily.

Without Wiltshire in the race, does anyone doubt that Madden would have captured half of Wiltshire's vote? That's would be a resounding show of support. Now, for the districts.

District 1 - A straight up majority win by political newcomer Jim Gulli. Rounding up, it was a 53%-47% victory. Gulli's victory was not decisive in a district that many said was a Gordon stronghold. Gulli got less votes than Gordon did two years before (699 to Gordon's 770) and Ryan received more votes than the 2013 loser,(623 to Scales 590). The Democrats are hoping this loss turns into a win with the absentees. Very doubtful. We think the absentees break the way the general breaks. Counting on the absentees is wishful thinking. If Ryan had bothered to get the WFP line, or Green line, it's a much closer race and maybe a win. This is not a safe seat unless you're a McGrath. Not that McGrath. The other McGrath.

District 2 - McGrath 534 to Robertson's 310. Let the big dog eat. This is McGrath's district whenever he wants it. While his defeat looks like an unprecedented victory, it actually mirrors the thorough ass-kicking McGrath gave a hapless Bob Martiniano in 2009. That was McGrath 537 to Martiniano's 308. This isn't even McGarth's best vote count. In 2011 McGrath received 610 votes. That said, Robertson's defeat looks almost as bad as my mother-in-law after a pub crawl. And a well earned. ass-kicking it was.

District 3 - Bodnar beat Steele by about the same percentage he beat his opponent in 2013. Even if Steele had all the WFP votes, she still loses. A swing district though.

Based on past voting, all three districts seem relatively unscathed by the upstart Team Troy. In fact, it is likely that Wiltshire supporters aided Ryan's numbers. We are not convinced that a different democrat in District 2 would have altered the outcome in any significant way.

District 4 - Doherty's best showing and the worst showing for an R since the Nick Helper debacle of 2009. A Democratic district.

District 5 - Give Kopka not all, but just half, of Bissember's vote and it's a landslide. A landslide against a well-known, Eastside favorite who had five lines. Casey received fewer votes (630) than Seamus Donnelly (740) and we're not even sure what a Seamus Donnelly is. A Democratic district.

District 6 -  Give D'Arcy less than half of Corey Jenkins vote and Donohue loses. Donohue's numbers are almost twice that of Ned's 2013 race but well short of Mahoney's 2011 effort.

At-Large - Without delving too deep into the at-large contest, does anyone believe that but for Team Troy, Weaver or Dresher would be on the Council and not Ashe-McPherson? Again, this does not assume all Team Votes go to the Democrat, only half that vote.

That's a 6-3 Democratic majority. But it's not. Team Troy did run and the GOP candidates did win districts that they should not have. That's a democracy and there's no sense in the Democrats whining about it. The fact that Team Troy cost the Democrats a majority on the City Council does not reduce the GOP majority. The point here is that the Republicans have the most precarious of holds on the Council that could easily evaporate in two years.

When it takes a split opposition vote and 3-4 lines to obtain wins in Districts 1-6 and one at-large seat, there's much work to be done to hold that majority.

That said, we believe this council, with an exception or two, will work with the new mayor and the new mayor will work with the new council. Most will want to make a good impression on the voters. Lest we forgot, it wasn't Bodnar or Gordon that undermined Rosamilia at every turn. It was Wiltshire (D-At-Large) and Zalewski (D-5) that did so, sacrificing Troy's interests to that of their own ambition. With both gone, their minion, Doherty, will get-along-to-go-along. After the past four years, we'll give Mantello and McPherson a fair shake. The council can't be more dysfunctional than the last four years.

*Ironically, better odd than Franco writing for a newspaper again

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do you ever notice that anytime anyone says Mayor Lou was defeated by the Wiltshire/Zalewski ego fart cloud monster from the Green Lantern movie they never cite a single policy, law or anything where Lou was blocked by the council president and pro-tem?

Did the Rod/Ken nexus defeat Lou by proposing the Solar Farm, which will save the city 300k in its first year alone? Did the Rod/Ken nexus defeat Lou by pointing out the city could save over a million dollars a year by rejiggering its tipping fees? Did the Rod/Ken nexus defeat Lou by proposing the city get of its ace and unfreeze the waterpipes?

If the City Council President has such immense power to control what city hall does as the Dunne/Wade blog and supporters claim, why run for Mayor?

Anonymous said...

Troy Democratic candidates didn't have a chance at going after the WFP line this year thanks to deals made with the Wiltshire-Zalewski "dynamic" duo. Only in Rensselaer County does the WFP give its nod to the GOP over Democrats! The local WFP needs reform badly if it is going to represent its true values and not the aspirations and egos of a few.

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Ken. P.S. you lost.

Unsatisfied Billie Jean said...

Was McAsshole running Metroland?

Anonymous said...

Wonder if the ever sold that foreclosed property over at 310 3rd St. Albany. Owned by some McCashion Brothers Holding. Yea, foreclosure notice went out back in November.

Anonymous said...

Who gives a shit about McDouche. Amy O called him on his bullshit and he pissed his pants and took down tweets. Pussy

Anonymous said...

Suck it Zakewski.

Phana24JG said...

Well done. My only question is how many of those WFP votes for Jenkins may well have gone to Donohue? The other item I might note is that when you compare the number of this versus 2011 numbers, the turnout this year was down.

Anonymous said...

Apple sauce, apple butter, Apple juice, Apple Betty, Apple turnover, Craig Apple, Apple muffin, Apple cider , Apple head, Apple martini... Gary, how do you like them apples?
Confess, maybe they will go easier on you.

Flappie Moose said...

So, what you're saying, Democratus, is that the two Democratic factions need each other. I couldn't agree more and hope everyone on both sides of the Democratic family feud will kiss and make up. They can split the two thirds of the Democratic-leaning electorate and each have a third of the seats in city council, etc. (This is being generous to the WFP wing of the party, but nobody goes to hell for being generous.) Otherwise they will simply prevent each other from winning anything, as the city council elections so clearly demonstrated. Then we need to get rid of fusion voting and the corruption that rampantly goes along with it.

Anonymous said...

Whoever the asshole is that put Marky and Timmy in the spot to look like the people who stole that tape should step up and grow a set of balls and be a man.

Anonymous said...

Inside the numbers. 56. The number of days that certain people have till unemployment from the city of Troy. Also the same persons shot of council approval is what they call slim to none. So even if for some reason the mayor elect tried to keep this person around it just not going to happen.

Anonymous said...

Go Carm!

Jim Franco said...

Wow, I heard you were back but haven't checked it out until now. True, my predictions were wrong. They were made before the 911 tape came out. On paper, Gordon should have won for the reasons I laid out. As far as the cheap shot at the end ... at least I have the guts to put my name to everything I write and/or have done.
Jim

Anonymous said...

Whatch out he just might if u a guy

Anonymous said...

8:49 Agreed. After Gordon mans up and admits the tape could have been leaked if it had existed and that is all on him.

Anonymous said...

No one but you gives a shit about who leaked the 911 tape. Whatever happens to them happens to them. Stop making it a bigger scandal than the actual events memorialized on the tape.

By the way, constant mention of the tape makes the GOP looked dumb and dumber for nominating him over Mantello. So, keep it up.

Anonymous said...

If Mantello was the GOP selection and ran against Madden she would have lost (see Lou). With Rodney and Madden in the race she may have won.

Anonymous said...

Come on tough guy! What's the matter? 55 days of health coverage left for the guy who killed your mayor and gave the R's the council majority. But now you won't print it. This new Mayor is removing this "cancer" from his city hall. Pussy protectors run this blog.

Anonymous said...

Fuck you Franco, you covered up the Gordon 911 call. You didn't even report on it or who could have released it! You know the guys are good guys that went to the county and got that tape but you don't say anything. Stop being so two faced.
Is that because Gordon was wearing your pin during the debate?
Man up and get some balls and say something. You know those guys didn't do it.

TPD said...

6:51 Why so down on Pete Ryan? Oh, and pay off your tax warrants.

Jim, lighten up. Wouldn't want the Polloi to have to get a restraining order.

Blue Pride said...

Come on Franco. If it had been a Dem with the 911 call you would have been on it like, oh, I don't know, like a reporter on an ex-girlfriend.

Anonymous said...

Ouch!

Anonymous said...

Any truth that Gary gordon released the tape?? I heard but not sure if its just a rumor.

Anonymous said...

Why would Franco report on something given his own past issues? Hits too close to home.

Anonymous said...

Say what you want but Jim is right.

Anonymous said...

Right about what.

This Blog Still Sucks said...

11:07
Very Glad you are back Jim.
Not so sure about you teaming up with Piss & Moan Paul but I'm hoping your commitment to the facts will rub off on him.
But the other day I heard you say as soon as you posted a story on on your Talk1300 Report the comments EXPLODED! When I went to check it out there were five comments. I waited a few days, thinking you may be a little behind, but was disappointed to find you were being a BIG BEHIND, just spinning self importance like the creator of the Bitch'en Babes . Try to be You. Be Well.

Anonymous said...

Jim has a point. Easy for anonymous bloggers to take shots. Put your name on it.

Anonymous said...

11:07. Your just so fucking stupid. You just admitted that not only are you a regular listener to Talk1300 you follow his new report on line. Your just a self loathing regular listener to the Piss & Moan show. Tell me does your BIG BEHIND get all red faced every day for 4.5 hours. I bet you even call in. Number on speed dial. Hahaha

Anonymous said...

Democratus loquitur veritatem ...
(Democratus speaks the truth...)

"It was Wiltshire (D-At-Large) and Zalewski (D-5) that did so, sacrificing Troy's interests to that of their own ambition."

Anonymous said...

At 7:48, Gary Gordon doesn't even work there anymore. Hasn't in ten years. IDIOT!

Anonymous said...

Nice

Anonymous said...

The first comment here is just stupid. From the second Rodney and Ken took over the council, they blocked almost every initiative Lou's administration put forward. Remember Zalewski killing the payroll/employee time clock system. Would have saved the city big bucks and cut down on wasted employee time. They killed proposals for apartment inspections and to stop porn businesses from opening. They killed the Scolite deal, because a Rodney campaign donor did not get his way. They killed a hotel planned for near Kennedy Towers. Wiltshire made all sorts of promises to a few business owners if they opposed the Monument Square project. He took credit for the work of citizen groups. The city did all the work on the solar thing, which now looks like it will never save any money. And for the tipping fees, read the budget. How do you save a million, when they are a million? And did I mention that those touch holes made the cops jobs like 100 times harder? A three year old would be a better leader than those dopes.

Anonymous said...

Stop reading and commenting!

Anonymous said...

Haha

Anonymous said...

Jim Franco, are you really telling us you think the 911 tape cost Gordon 2500 votes? And are you really telling us you didn't know that somehow the 911 tspe would come out? My 8 year old son knew it would. Gordon didn't have a shot regardless of what happened, that bunch is done, anyone associated with Harry or Rich is a dead duck. That is why people call you a partisan hack. Your "prediction" was more like wishful thinking! Why didn't you mention the Gordon incident at all? Because if you did, you would get grounded

Anonymous said...

11:07 did you just say Jim Franco has a "commitment to facts" ? Only if the facts don't hold his pals in s negative light!