The City of Troy, New York, "Where Henry Hudson Turned Around."

Monday, November 02, 2015

THE STATE OF THE RACE

We've reached the end of our political symphony. Like most symphonies, it was in four parts. An opening that set the themes, a second act that could put caffeine to sleep, a fast paced third act and now, the rondo.

So, where are we?

GORDON

It will surprise no one that the 911 tape released on October 20, 2015 has held down the Gordon campaign. Until that date, Gordon had run the best, possible campaign that Gordon could run. He kept his head down, nose clean and washed behind his ears before bed down while the two Democrats punched it out. It was a good strategy for a mediocre candidate. We don't mean that to be harsh but Gordon was not a skilled campaigner. He was not a good speaker and came with no readily identifiable issue. He did not distinguish himself in the debates (to be fair, no one did). Instead, Gordon went about his business, letting Wiltshire accuse and Madden deny of all sorts of allegedly nasty campaign tactics.

While Gordon was strolling along the election highway he missed the RR Xing sign and was blindsided by the 911 from State Street. His campaign has been in the fetal position ever since then. Will he be able to limp across the finish line?


MADDEN

Madden ran a traditional campaign that struck us as a bit too old fashioned. His team seemed to play catch-up on social media and too slow to respond to Wiltshire's attacks. There were complaints that he did not rely on the current Democratic crew for advice and too much on people like Mark Pattison and Mark Streb. Those are good people to rely on, in part. Perhaps he is the tortoise, the slow and steady candidate that knew what he was doing all along. Madden performed well in the debates but those have never been an altimeter of victory. His campaign has been consistent on themes of leadership and executive experience. That may be working. Some have noted Wiltshire signs going down on front lawns and Madden signs taking there place. We think he's winning as the anti-Gordon vote begins to coalesce around Madden.



WILTSHIRE


This strong third-party endeavor started with a bang. High energy and lots of enthusiasm. It's always hard to judge the strength of these campaigns because the enthusiasm of the supporters can camouflage their numbers.   The primary was a tight squeeze and Wiltshire almost pulled off something unheard of outside of Beth Walsh's primary victory for Family Court a few years ago. It was an impressive showing. He's a talented politician. Unfortunately, it was followed up by a campaign that had no raison d'etre.

Wiltshire ran an anti-establishment campaign. We love that. What person with a heart doesn't love a good insurgency? The Troy Polloi was born way-back-when to help keep an eye on the Tutunjian administration when the Democrats were at low tide. Outside of a councilman or two, the Democrats held nothing. So, we've been there. There were many times where we thought about remaining neutral or even throwing our support to Wiltshire. Something held us back. Just when we wanted to give Wiltshire the benefit of the doubt he would cast doubt on the whole enterprise.

On the heels of the Brown, McDonough & Co. arrests for voter fraud, Wiltshire sought and received Democratic backing. He did so again in the next election cycle. He wasn't raging against the machine at that time. It's only after he fails to get what he wants that Wiltshire talks about reform or party bosses. We have the feeling that he doesn't want no boss, he just wants a new boss.

The chant that he is the only candidate not "bought and paid for," often repeated by Wiltshire's second, Ken Zalewski, is nonsensical bumper-sticker politics. Who bought and paid for Gordon? Did they keep the receipt? Who bought and paid for Madden? We know who didn't. Labor Unions and the NYC WFP party didn't. A look at financial disclosures show who they purchased.

Wiltshire is a good campaigner and a good debater. He had promise as a politician. We think he's sincere in his progressive beliefs. It just seems like that at each opportunity to put something else ahead of his ambitions, he can't do it. If Madden, at times, appeared not to want the job, Wiltshire wants it too much.

We think he'll do well. We think he may come in second.

That's where we think the race stands. One campaign derailed, one on the slow and steady upswing and one stalled out after a strong start. Maybe we are wrong.

Place your bets. It's over now. Except for the voting.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

As a Republican, there is an arrogance, elitist attitude in your writing that I should disdain. Yet, I find it oddly attractive. You're like a patrician talking down to the plebs. Why do I like it when I disagree with most of it? Maybe I'm a masochist.

Anonymous said...

You like it because your own party sucks balls.

Anonymous said...

looks like cooper has jumped ship and sent rodney packing..he needs to just go away...i'm sure hes not even registered to vote.

Anonymous said...

I heard Gordon sat in a corner at the Boys club breakfast yesterday not talking to anyone and no one talking to him. He knows its over .

Anonymous said...

Only the id of Bill Dunne can write post after post about Wiltshire's arrogance in refusing to crown the one family rule of Jimino/Madden.

Anonymous said...

He's just one of many, Rodster. It's over dude. Grab a taco and cry into a nice red wine at LoPorto's.

Anonymous said...

Stick a fork in Gordon...he's done. Wiltshire is more than done...he's finished. Dems will never support him for anything.

Anonymous said...

We all get it on all sides, Gordon's not going to win. It's been a certainty since the day the tape was released. FYI, I didn't think he'd win regardless , tape or not.

The fact is that the robo call last night was just gratuitous piling on - blood lust. I don't necessarily worry about him but his poor wife just got " held down " again by the robo call facilitator.

I understand the desire to be certain your enemy is down for the count, but Jesus that was over the top.

It looks like the high road is closed for now, hopefully only temporarily.

Anonymous said...

7:22: Always funny to hear Republicans bitch about arrogance. You guys invented it.

Anonymous said...

Telling words about Bob Doherty...

First, Bob is free to support whomever he chooses. Unlike Troy's Democratic Party, we don't turn against our friends based on the candidates they choose to support. Second, has Bob actually made a public endorsement? If not, then it's not really "public". Third, Bob stood shoulder to shoulder with Rodney a day ago in a crowded room and asked all of the senior citizens present to support Rodney for mayor. Finally, have you given any thought to the possibility that Bob is telling you what you want to hear.

From Ken Zalewski on FB in response to a comment.

Is he advocating electing someone who lies to a voter?

Anonymous said...

Give me a break. If it was a Dem candidate caught pinning his wife down, the GOP would have photoshopped bruises on her face and taken out ads on national TV . Mrs. Gordon can thank Rich Crist for her citywide humiliation. He wrote the scumbag playbook, and now you can all choke on it.

Anonymous said...

That's hilarious! He's all over the place in that post. The normally cool, unruffled Ken is now contadicting himself while pissing down his own leg.

Between this and the frantic nonstop anti-Madden tweets today from "troypolitics" Crist and McAsshion, we can now be 100% sure Madden's won.

Game, set, match.

Anonymous said...

I love how the same people who insist the 911 call was no big deal are the ones claiming the wife has been "victimized again" by the tape release. If it was no big deal, then she's not a victim. If she was a victim, why arent you more concerned with that, instead of what the press did with that information? It just goes to show what partisan phonies the Gordon supporters really are. They couldn't care less about domestic violence generally or Mrs. Gordon personally.

Anonymous said...

12:14 AMEN

total tool said...

Election may not be in the bag as some Madden supporters believe. If Wiltshire cleans up in portions of district 2, district 4, then Madden is toast and Gordon squeaks in. If you look at the past election results, especially since 2009, the dems and GOP run about even in the burgh, albia and south troy sections with the dems cleaning up in central troy and winning. Look at the primary results, central troy is where Wiltshire had his best totals. Those are votes not going to Madden.

At large: Dresher, Mantello and Weaver

District 1 -Gulli
District 2 -McGrath, which should make for a very interesting two years on the Council
District 3 -Bodnar,
District 4 -Doherty
District 5- Casey
District 6 -D'Arcy

5-4 GOP edge. I still believe that Madden will defeat Gordon. Low turnout election, anything can happen.

Anonymous said...

Latest numbers. 372 people like Jim Gordon for Mayor FB page. 1,512 people like Councilman Jim Gordon should resign. The people have spoken.

Anonymous said...

Don't know why I read McAsshole but he's going apeshit. Always the same thing with that dude. What's his problem? Does anyone understand those tweets?

Anonymous said...

Totally raving and incomprehensible.

Anonymous said...

Tick tick tick.....bye bye Bill Dunne only days away now. Pat Madden will be happy it's over and more happy when everyone stops pissing in his ear about Bad Boy Bill Dunne. Sick of the questions about him staying or going. Your gone Bill and please stop implying that you have a shot at Deputy Mayor. Start getting info on Cobra plan.

Anonymous said...

That's how you know Gordon's toast. The final tell.

David Graham said...

Now that Madden has permitted the 911 to go on the robocall, who is the slime ball?

Anonymous said...

How do you know it was Madden. Some of you people don't seem to understand that party committees and unions operate like super pacs. Madden can't control that. Rodney said he didn't send out the mailer about Madden. Know what, he probably didn't. The WFP did. Madden can't control what other do. Gordon isn't responsible for what Rich Crist and the scumbags at the county do. If you knew how the game was played, you'd know that. Grow up. The slime ball is the guy who held down his wife.

Anonymous said...

David, when the low life politicos tell you what your looking at and what is basic common sense isn't true they'll go all the way to the bottom......Mirch did it.

Anonymous said...

There are four candidates for mayor, three of which are serious contenders. If Gordon is hurt by the 911 call itself and Madden by false accusations of sleazy tactics, then who does that benefit? Wiltshire and Cox.

Anonymous said...

Doubtful Madden is hurt. Feels like he's surging. Cox could hurt Gordon, as it is an anti-incumbent vote. Maybe he hurts Wiltshire as another anti-establishment candidate. Hard to say. It feels like a Cox voter might be an angry republican type.

Anonymous said...

You love Cooper, you can't seem to get enough if him! Maybe you have a crush on him?

Anonymous said...

Did you get any right?? I don't think so