The City of Troy, New York, "Where Henry Hudson Turned Around."

Tuesday, October 06, 2015



How many times have you been asked to explain the Troy political scene to an outsider. Neither have we. But, we'll try.

For those of you new to Troy, or the Troy Polloi, the political landscape is as difficult to navigate as a Lockheed Electra 10E over the Pacific Ocean in the middle of the night with a boozed-up navigator. Many have tried. Some turned back. Some were never heard from again. So, as a public service, we are offering this handy-dandy guide.


House Sigil:  White Trough on Magenta Field
House Words: "November is Coming."
House Colors: Ashen Grey

Headed-up by Tom "King" Wade, the Democratic County Chair. Don't mistake the squeaky voice and curly hair for a lovable teddy bear. Wade plays hard and can rule with an iron fist. Probably the most successful Democratic Chair in some time, he can raise the hackles of some. Does not forget a slight, real or perceived. Rewards loyalty. Came to power by challenging former Chair Lynn Mahoney. They shared the chair for a few years, which was as successful as Soviet power sharing. Faced a revolt a few years back by Wiltshire, Rabbit and North Greenbush. Brushed them back easily. Former Democratic Board of Election Commissioner. Chose Patrick Madden as the mayoral candidate. Many believe he shepherded Ernest Everett into primary to siphon votes from Wiltshire.


Madden, Patrick  - Endorsed for mayor by the Democratic Committee, which means hand-picked by Wade.

Jimino, Kathy - Wade has given-up on running a candidate against GOP County Executive Kathy Jimino

Wiltshire, Rodney - Not liked by Wade, considered an upstart who hasn't made his bones.


House Sigil:  White Elephant on a White Field
House Words: "Taxes are Coming."
House Colors: Translucent

Led by long-standing Republican County Executive, Kathy Jimino. As much as a GOP County boss as anyone, but has rivals that are equally influential. Not enamored of the Troy Republican Party. Mary Donohue Lite. Called The Mother of Dragons by no one.


Madden, Patrick - Her brother
Gordon, Jim - Her employee


House Sigil: Yawning Man on Red Field
House Words: "My Campaign is Coming."
House Colors: Rehab Green

Helmed by Patrick Madden, Endorsed by the Democratic Committee, winner of the Democratic primary by 50 votes, CEO of TRIP and a political newcomer. This outsider was the third Democrat to enter the primary contest. Despite backing of Wade, appears to rely on former Mayor Mark Pattison and operative Mark Streb. Nickname: Pat.


Jimino, Kathy - His sister


House Sigil: All-Seeing Eye on black and blue field
House Words: "The Police are Coming."
House Colors: Paste

One-term councilman. GOP endorsed candidate for mayor. Also has the Conservative, Independent and Green Party lines. Currently, represents District 1 on the Troy City Council. Rensselaer County Stop DWI Coordinator, appointed by Jimino. Got the nomination even though Carmella Mantello is better known and a better vote-getter.


Jimino, Kathy - Hired him
Crist, Rich - Influential in getting Gordon Independent and Conservative lines


House Sigil: Silhouette Walking on Water
House Words: "My Presence Wouldn't Make a Difference."
House Colors: Graple

Current City Council President, business owner and the Working Families Party candidate for mayor. Received nomination because he works and has a family. Lost a Democratic Primary by razor-thin margin. Engineered a great ground game. Considered anti-establishment and a foe of House Wade. Would-be Kingslayer. Many think he's a better self-promoter than public servant. Others see him as changing politics in Troy. Cozied up to Rich Crist two years ago to secure the Independence line and the City Council Presidency.


House Sidgel: Vertical Black Bars on White Field
House Words: "My Lawyer is Coming."
House Colors: Orange

Thirty-Two year old pharmaceutical salesman. Begin his mayoral bid in 2014. His Quixotic quest ended on September 10, when he placed third in the voting. Later, charged with forgery and filing a false instrument for allegedly witnessing nominating signatures he didn't witness. Many think Boss Wade encouraged Everett to run in order to split the Wiltshire anti-establishment vote.


House Sigil: Dollar Sign on Maroon Field
House Words: "Thank God  Abelove Won."

Minor but influential House led by Rich Crist. Ostensibly a employee of Rensselaer County Legislature but really the go-to-guy if you want the Independent Line or Conservative Line. Influence diminished compared to a few years ago but many Republicans still have their Crist knee pads. Accused of sexual harassment by County employee Colleen Regan. Charges dumped by Division of Human Rights because all but two incidents occurred outside the statutory time period and because Crist was not her supervisor. Charged with endangering a minor and harassment. Charges dropped by District Attorney Joel Abelove. Nickname: "Middle Finger."


Abelove, Joel - Owes Crist for Conservative, Independence Party Lines, dropped charges against Crist rather than recusing himself. Failed to seek special prosecutor for GOP Legislative Leader Martin Reid, another Crist colleague.

Wiltshire, Rodney - Helped Rodney get Independence Line which led to Wiltshire getting City Council Presidency

Crist, Craig - Brother, lawyer with Dreyer, Boyajian firm that represented Crist, partner Boyajian was owner of the King Street property that was demolished, causing a hyperbolic non-scandal.


House Sigil: Shaved Scrotum on Brown Field
House Words: "Charges Dropped."

Recently minted District Attorney. Won by slim margin in possibly the best Republican year in a decade. Stumbled early by not referring the Crist charges to another District Attorney. Stumbled again by not requesting special prosecutor for Martin Reid case. Stumbled yesterday going up courthouse steps. Announced Rensselaer County a Sanctuary County for Republicans. Disliked by best friend. Nickname: Joel Abelove.


House Sigil: Absentee Ballot on a Black Field
House Words: "Not Again."

Once a major house, this minor house is led by Democratic Elections Commissioner Ed McDonough Jr. Son of Ed McDonough, former party boss that wound up in prison for something he did before we paid attention to this shit. McDonough was at the center of the voter fraud prosecution a few years back. First jury was hung (and we mean hung). Acquitted at second trial. Accused of ignoring dodgy Everett nominating petitions. Supports, but dislikes, Wade.


House Sigil: Slack Jaw on  Purple Field
House Words: "What's a Sigil."

Once a major house now lies in ruins. Led by former councilman and two-term mayor Harry Tutunjian. Won two terms by comfortable margins, the first on the heels of a ill-conceived Democratic scheme to repeal term limits. Often considered, even by himself, a weak-willed leader and puppet of Bob Mirch or Dan Crawley or Dave Mitchell. Lost support during second term after bullying, incompetence and ethics problems became harder to hide. After his reign ended, appointed to County Legislature. Lost his seat at next election. Ran a second time and lost. Gordon supporter and advisor. Nickname: The Imp.


House Sigil: Desperate Woman on Orange Field
House Words: "God Dammit, Just Vote for Me. Please!"

This minor house is led by perennial candidate Carmella Mantello. Currently, running for an At-Large seat. Lost city-wide council race in 2013. Lost mayoral race in 2011. Lost mayoral race years ago  to Mark Pattison. Lost her car keys in 2002, 2005 and 2007.  Headed-up Canal Corp. for Governor Pataki in-between losses. The electoral version of Single White Female. If she loses this race voters will apply for temporary restraining order. Secretly rooting for Gordon to lose so she can run for top spot in 4 years.

Monday, October 05, 2015


We meant to post this yesterday but we kicked it down the road. Or, we punted. Any ubiquitous phrase will do.

The four mayoral candidates reacted to the proposed 9.3% tax hike unveiled by Troy Mayor Lou Rosamilia. One even swooned. The reactions are a fascinating study.

First, however, it should be made clear that the tax hike was not a surprise to anyone on the City Council. The hike is being used to cover $1.9 million in pension fund costs owed to the State. The money was due last year and we deferred payment until this year under the Wimpy Doctrine of  "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." Now, they'll break our legs if we don't pay.

Last year, the Council asked the Mayor to have department heads submit  department budgets with a 3% cut. This would have resulted in over twenty-five layoffs, including eight in the TPD and ten in the Fire Department. Obviously, these cuts were not adopted. All of this was in hopes of addressing what we face today. The Record covered the story back in November, 2014.

So, a significant hike was inevitable,  this year or last year. Everyone knew it. After the Tutunjian Administration ($12,000,000 over seven years) looted the reserve fund to avoid large tax increases, citizens are finally realizing that shit costs money and costs go up. Couple that with the fact that 86% of the budget is spent immediately for salaries, pensions, benefits and debt service, and you know taxes will almost always go up (unless you dip into the rainy day fund, now depleted to $600,000). So, Lou got caught holding the bag.

So, what do the candidates have to say:


Wiltshire, who is City Council president, said he did not see how the council could approve the increase. “[This tax increase] is terrible and it’s the result of kicking the can down the road and playing politics with Troy’s government,” said Wiltshire, a Democrat running on the Working Families Party line.

 Wiltshire criticized the Industrial Development Agency for “too many giveaways” and the current administration for not filling the position of city auditor.

“For me, we need to cut on our expenditures in areas we have control over,” said Wiltshire, identifying energy conservation as one area of possible improvement.

Well, either Wiltshire helped to kick the can down the road or he didn't know the can was being kicked down the road. Either way he's being disingenuous. As for not voting for it, Wiltshire may or may not know that the proposed budget will go into effect if the Council doesn't vote for it (or vote a revised budget). Not showing will not cut it this year.

Wiltshire offered no examples of how 'playing politics' or the IDA resulted in the proposed tax hike. We know, and so does Wiltshire, why the money is needed. Apparently, the reporter did not ask the follow up question. Wiltshire, in the past, has demonstrated an astounding ignorance of the IDA and PILOT programs. Although, he recently told the Reddit Community that he would work with the IDA to keep Troy's economic engine motoring.

The Tutunjian Administration understood the benefits of the IDA when it vigorously pushed tax breaks to bring Dinosaur-Bar-B-Que to Troy. The total package was over $600,000. This to a company whose majority owner is a hedge fund controlled by multi-zillionaire George Soros.

Now to Jim Gordon, the other candidate currently on the Council:

“This year, possible, the mayor presented a more realistic budget, unlike in past years when he presented a smoke-in-mirrors budget,” said Gordon. He said the tax hike, requiring council approval, punted the ball to the city council.

“Last year they kicked the can down the road and this year they punt the ball,” said Gordon.

Apparently, Gordon was not on the Council last year. And, the Charter actually punts the ball to the Council. That's the process. Gordon may not know that.

Under Section 70 of the Charter, the City Council has the authority to recommend changes to the proposed budget. Did either Gordon or Wiltshire make specific recommendations last year that might have lessened the looming tax hike? Gordon, like Wiltshire, buried his head in the sand for an entire year. Now, the have sandy heads. We don't have to tell you what that means.

The silver lining? We get to see two mayoral candidates in action as they roll up their sleeves and trudge through the budget quagmire. We can hear what they would do and what cuts they recommend. We get to see their leadership skills; Not just talk. Here, they can act. If they can provide Lou with enough cuts to lower the proposed tax increase 4-5% then they'll be heroes.

The candidates not currently in government get a free pass on this. They can say what they want, sound wise, self-righteous, conciliatory, etc. There is not anything they could have done in the past few years, or ever, to prevent the large tax increase.


“Everybody had varying predictions of where the number would fall and I’m grateful it’s not double digits -- however it is very close to double digits and I think it’s a very difficult pill for people to swallow.”

Madden, the executive director of the Troy Rehabilitation and Improvement Program, said hopefully, the council will engage in the process this year and come up with some ideas. “But I also know if there were any easy fixes, the mayor wouldn’t have proposed a 9.3 percent increase,” he said.

Madden asked why the council had not addressed the anticipated hole in the 2016 budget from a deferred payment in 2015. “Where’s the council been on this question?”

He advocates for changes in the budgeting process, like forecasting beyond 12 months.

“We’re not doing the hard work that we need to be doing, we’re not acting strategically, we’re kicking the can down the road year after year,” he said.


Jack Cox, Jr., who is running as an independent candidate on the Revolutionary Party line, said he was glad he was not on the City Council, like Gordon and Wiltshire, “because I don’t have to vote on this budget.”

With a 3.8 percent tax increase in 2015, the city taxes will increase about 13 percent in two years, said Cox.

The tax hike, he said, “clearly shows that the current administration, including Rodney and Jim Gordon, have a lack of understanding on how to manage money.

“At the end of the day, these people are making deals and doing things with the understanding that its others peoples money and there’s no end to the revenue stream and that’s public sector thinking,” said Cox. “We need private sector influence.”

With some deft maneuvering, the tax hike will be less. Perhaps 6%. Not great but better than what we face now. Lets watch and see what they do. If the men who would be mayor can't straighten this out, there's no choice but Madden.

Whether it's settling suits caused by the previous administration or making up for their raid on the reserve fund, we will be cleaning up Tutunjian's mess for years.

Sunday, October 04, 2015


In the first of a continuing series (but probably not) we profile one of those brave enough to expose themselves to the Troy voter.


New to running for public office, Anasha Cummings is not new to getting involved. In fact, for someone who actually wants to be on the City Council, this guy is actually impressive. And hard to miss.

Sure, his name sounds like something one might shout while climaxing (say it three times fast), but Cummings is in Troy by choice, not because he can't sell his house. Born and raised in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Cummings attended RPI, graduated in 2012, and stayed in the Collar City.

In 2012, Cummings was named RPI's Person of the Year. That's impressive and not just because he's not Asian. We grew exhausted just reading the list of Cummings activities. According to The Record:

Cummings was born in Santa Fe, N.M., and moved to Troy to study Design, Innovation and Society* at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. It was during that time he became involved with bridging the gap between college students and the rest of the city.

He has worked as an intern for U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko, a VISTA sustainability coordinator for Troy Rehabilitation and Improvement Program (TRIP), and as a project coordinator with Empire Solar. He is also an organizer for Transition Troy.

Cummings snagged the Working Families Party and Green Party  endorsement for an At-Large seat on the Troy City Council. He also ran for the Democratic line but lost. Currently, he is deciding whether to actively campaign or withdraw from the race. To that end, Cummings has created The People's Primary, an on-line petition that will decide the political future. At least for 2015. Cummings will let the people decide whether he continues his campaign. If Cummings receives 1,000 votes by October 9, 2015, he will remain in the race.

You see, Cummings doesn't want to be a spoiler and will only run if he believes he has an actual shot at winning. He doesn't want his supporters throwing away their vote.

For those Republicans in the audience, to vote you have to leave your name and contact information to vote. So, don't bother trying to thwart the purpose of the petition.

This guy cares about Troy and has the energy to help guide Troy in to the future. He is a great example of the Creative Economy on the rise in Troy. We hope he runs again. As a Democrat. And wins.

We hope to be able to post an interview with Cummings in the near future

* Yes, yes, he minored in Care of Magical Creatures. We get it.

Friday, October 02, 2015


If you want to bitch and moan about the proposed tax hike, and who doesn't, feel free to use yesterday's post as an open thread on the issue. Today, we'll take a look at one particular third party line.

Third parties, minor parties, call them what you will. The fight for, or co-opting of, these ballot lines underscores our jaded, cynical, unprincipled politics, particularly in Rensselaer County.

We have no problem with the existence of such parties. That is their right. We also have no problem when a major party candidate is endorsed by a third party if that third party's general philosophy overlaps with the philosophy of the candidate's actual party. But, when things like this happen, it...

Rodney Wiltshire could run on the Democratic line and the Working Families line without any major contradictions. Ditto Jim Gordon running as a Republican and Conservative. Gordon is currently a Republican Councilman for District 1 and the County's Stop John Sweeney Coordinator.

Now, in addition to his other lines, Jim Gordon will be running as the Green Party candidate for mayor of Troy. No, really. We know, we thought the same thing.

Lets take a look at a few planks in the Green Party Platform. Come on, it won't hurt. Promise.

1. The Green Party honors and seeks to follow the teachings of the Haudenosaunee who implore us to consider the impact of our decisions on the well being of the next seven generations* in our deliberations of policy and practice in all areas of live (life?), and in particularly, with respect to the environment.  Toward this goal, NY should establish a goal of being carbon neutral by 2030.

2. No hydrofracking for natural gas (fracking, same-sex or otherwise, is permitted).

3. Implement the rapid phase-out of nuclear power for environmental as well as economic reasons and the replacement of that power with clean renewable sources so that nuclear power has no future in New York State.

4. It is essential that we develop effective alternatives to society's current patterns of violence. We will work to demilitarize, and eliminate weapons of mass destruction (and establish a new pattern of violence).

5. We call for the immediate legalization of the growth, sale and possession of cannabis and hemp under NY State law, and for legal opposition to Federal prosecutions for the same. Prohibition and the resulting “drug war” have unjustly incarcerated countless individuals and scarred communities, often along racial and class lines, while draining resources from society (obviously the Greens are in bed with Frito Lay and part of the Marijuana-Munchy Industrial Complex ).

6. Women’s rights must be protected and expanded to guarantee each woman’s right as a full participant in society, free from sexual harassment, job discrimination or interference in the intensely personal choice about whether to have a child. Women’s right to control their bodies is non-negotiable (we will not deploy troops to stabilize your vagina).

 7. The Green Party affirms the rights of all individuals to freely choose intimate partners, regardless of their sex, gender, gender identity, or sexual orientation. The Green Party recognizes the equal rights of persons who identify as gay, lesbian, bisexual, intersex, transsexual, queer, or transgender to housing, jobs, marriage, medical benefits, child custody, and in all areas of life including equal tax treatment. We support legislation such as the Gender Expression Non-Discrimination Act to outlaw discrimination gender identity or expression; GENDA also expands the state’s hate crimes law to explicitly include crimes against transgender people (intersex? we'll bring the frosting).**

8. Fully funded, full day, and developmentally appropriate Universal Pre-K and Kindergarten with certified and unionized educators (another giveaway to those little Pre-K fuckers).

9. Establish a publicly funded single payer health insurance program covering all residents in the state.

10.The Green Party stands firmly for social justice for all those living in this country regardless of their immigration status (and before you ask, yes, even undocumented Canadians).

11. Reject life without parole sentences: They fail to recognize the human capacity to change and fully appreciate the value of each human life (we can all appreciate the value of Lemuel Smith's or Bucky Phillips' capacity to change).

12. Provide the equivalent of a living wage income and adequate benefits to those who are not able to work (yes! Finally, my fibromyalgia comes in handy). 

 Granted, a candidate never agrees fully with their party's platform. There are always disagreements. But, does Gordon support half of the Green Party platform? A third? A fourth? If so which planks does he support and how will he help implement the planks he supports?

Would some enterprising journalist ask Gordon which of these positions he supports. No doubt  Franco will have Jim on his radio program once more before the election. Will Franco ask what Green Party positions Gordon supports? If none, will Franco ask Gordon why he accepted the Green Party line? We know the answer, of course. This is not a Gordon problem. They all do it. In this instance though, the platforms are so antithetical to one another a justification for running on both is impossible. We just want the politicians that accept lines antithetical to their party enrollment to confess that its all bullshit.

Ah! Screw it! Nothing changes.


* Because 6 generations is obviously too few and 8 generations  is just ridiculous.

** Intersex? Seriously. No clue what  that means. Jim, it's your party. Help us out here. 

Thursday, October 01, 2015


Looks like 9 percent



GOP candidate for Mayor, Jim Gordon, received the coveted endorsement of former Republican gubernatorial candidate, Rob Astorino.  Astorino lost the 2014 race for Gubernator to Andrew Cuomo. On a scale of 1-to-10, how many political influence points is this endorsement worth?

a) 1-3
b) 4-7
c) 8-10
d) Rob Who?

Said Gordon: "I am honored by this endorsement. I used to own a '78 Astorino. Best car I ever had. Went from 0 to 60 in twelve minutes."


District Attorney Joel Abelove is encouraging his assistants to carry concealed weapons. Abelove has already shot himself in the political foot a number of times and now wants his people to have the same opportunity.

Abelove issued the statement, saying he doesn't want to deprive his staff of their 2nd Amendment Rights. No word if he is encouraging staff to publicly criticize him, in honor of the First Amendment.

Lawyers with concealed weapons: What could possibly go wrong?

Abelove did not comment on dismissing, or failing to act on, charges against political supporters.


Big day today. We should learn what the proposed tax hike will be. Some say up to 20%. Others say high single digits. We'll know soon enough. Place your bets.


Police Chief John Tedesco announced that firearm seizures are up 68% in the City of Troy. Surprisingly, shooting are trending down. There have been twenty-three shootings this year compared to forty-seven in 2014. But it's only October. We have three months to go. Lets do this! If we focus and put our minds to it, we can beat last year's numbers.

Maybe Abelove's staff can help.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015


First off, the TROY NY facebook page has some great, vintage photos of Troy. Hat tip to Andrew Cooper.

Now, on to our story.

More numbers for people who care. We know many of you like to crunch the numbers, so here's a few. If you don't, settle down, take out a book and read to yourselves.

We  have the enrollment numbers for Troy from 2014. These won't be exact. People move out, move in, die.* The numbers should be roughly similar today. We suspect the WFP numbers have gone up a bit.We might be able to track down the up-to-date number but, screw it.

Democrats - 8,457
Republicans - 3,617
Independent - 1,474
Conservative - 1,237
Working Families - 481

Blanks - 6,603

There's a smear of Green Party enrollees but barely enough to notice. There's an even smaller number of 'other' parties, so small that they're not even named.

The total number of enrolled voters for Troy is 20,395, roughly twice the number that actually vote.

What's this tell us? No idea, really.

Based on our last post we no that Mayor Lou received 5,000 votes and Mantello 4,100. We know Mayor Tutunjian, in 2007, received 5,400 to former Deputy Mayor Conroy's 4,100.

Do these tea leaves really tell us anything? It tells us Trojans are true Americans, with our 50% voter turnout (which includes forged absentee ballots). We do not have the breakdown of how many of each party, or how many blanks, voted for whom. So, we guess the best questions to ponder are:

1. Can Gordon get as many votes as Tutunjian? Mantello? Tutunjian was an incumbent whose image didn't get tarnished until his second term. Half of Tutunjian's budgets included a 0% tax increase (because he raided and depleted Pattison's reserve fund, we now face a double-digit tax increase). Mantello's name recognition is much higher than Gordon's as she had been around Troy politics for 73 years.

2. Is the Democratic vote evenly split?  Wiltshire ran the type of campaign that does create strong support among his supporters. The type of voter that will vote in a blinding downpour or raging snowstorm (or vice versa). That type of support has a ceiling. It is interesting to note that Rodney secured just about as many votes in the primary as 'likes' on his facebook page.

3. Does Wiltshire support slowly shrink (you know about shrinkage?) as the prospect of a Gordon administration grows? That is another phenomenon with third-parties. People will start to lay-off the Wiltshire bubbly for fear of a Gordon hangover.

4. Will Gordon's refusal to request, and disclose, the 911 tape hurt him?

Our best guess, and it is only a guess, is that the election will break down as follows:

9,250 votes

Gordon 3,600
Wiltshire 1,500
Madden 3,900
Cox 250

We may be generous in almost doubling Wiltshire's support.

Now on to our newest feature, GUESS WHO'S THE DOUCHE

Which area politician has their bowels in an uproar about the newly painted crosswalk mural at Fifth Avenue and 101st Street?

We'll give you three guesses, but you're not going to need them.

This bone-chilling, sinister sturgeon is another manufactured micro-aggression in the mind of:

a) Ken Zalewski
b) Carmella Mantello
c) Mark McGrath
d) Gary Galuski

The answer is here.

What's next? Stripers! Salmon! We must resist!**

* Yes, they may still be eligible to vote

** According to the artist the intent is to resist McGrath's descent into an Alzheimers-like nuttiness. 

Tuesday, September 29, 2015


After downing a half a bottle of Nyquil, 2 Darvocet and some Skittles, we decided to take a look at the Mayoral and At-Large races for the past few cycles. We did it for you, you political/numbers junkies. You can thank us later. After you crunch a few of these digits, send us your theories, your analysis your predictions.



R-Tutunjian 5,422
D-Conroy 4,145


D-Campana 4565
D-Brown 4361
R-Bauer 4177*
R-Talarico 4089*
R-Ciccarelli 4077*
D-Foy 3398

The WFP ran three candidates that received a total of 567 votes

* Each Republican candidate also had the Independence and Conservative lines.



D-Campana 3837
D-Brown 3654
D-LoPorto 3526
R-Bauer 3086
R-Miner 2663
R-Rogers 2777



D-Rosamilia 5,030
R-Mantello 4,163


D-Kopka 4,801
D-Nichols 4,655
D-Wiltshire 4,207
R-Gordon 3,826
R-Greene 3,756
R-Killips 3,304



D-Rodney Wiltshire 3,605
D-Erin Sullivan-Teta 3,405
D-Lynn Kopka 3,155
R-Carmella Mantello 3,132
R-Christian Lambertsen 2,070
R-John Cubit 1,863
G-Jessica Ashley 501

The first thing that jumps out is the turnout during a mayoral election year. One expects turnout to be higher when there's a race for mayor. We didn't expect the difference to be so big. In 2011, Gordon could not win an At-Large seat with 3,800 votes. Not even close. He was 500 votes behind the third place winner, Rodney Wiltshire. In 2011, Mantello almost won a seat with 3,100 votes.

In off-year election, you can expect 18,000 votes cast for At-Large candidates. In Mayoral election years, 24,000.  Numbers for the mayors race - expect between 9,000-10,000.

The other observation is that the At-Large race has been the Democrats to lose. Since 2007only Bauer (an incumbent) won. After Hank, the only Republican to come close is Mantello, who enjoyed a much higher name recognition than her Republican colleagues. Conclusion: relatively unknown Democrats will win. Republicans need incumbency or high name recognition. Or, a split Democratic vote.

The numbers also show the waning influence of the Independence and Conservative lines. The Democrats are consistently beating Republicans who hold the Independence and Conservative lines. Once upon a time, those lines would make the difference in many races, Now. not so much.