Saturday, October 31, 2015
Ok class, settle down. We had a film strip all ready for today but the AV club screwed it up. Instead, we'll do some math. Grab your number#2 pencil and take out some scrap paper.
For the past two mayoral cycles, the number of votes has remained consistent. In '07, Harry Tutunjian received 5,400 votes to Jim Conroy's 4,100. Four years ago, Rosamilia got 5,000 votes to Mantello's 4,100. So, safe to say, 9,100 to 9,500 people will vote. We think it may be a bit higher: maybe 9,700. For this exercise, we'll go with 9,250 votes cast for mayor.
The simply analysis is that Gordon (R) will be able to hold down Mantello's 4,100 votes, leaving Madden (D) and Wiltshire (WFP) to carve up the residual 5,000 votes. In this scenario, Wiltshire needs roughly 1000 votes to hand Gordon the keys to Hedley Place. That would be 150 more votes than Wiltshire grabbed in the primary. Not a tall order.
This presupposes that the same people vote in each election and vote for the same party. We know this isn't true because 1,000 votes switched from R to D from 2007 to 2011. We could also theorize that there are 1,000 swing voters that actually decide the election. Based on these numbers, we have the following formula:
Therefore, Gordon has an ERA of 4.14.
We do think that turnout will be up but not by much. Maybe total of 9,700 voters. Wiltshire has likely registered people and his type of campaign does get people to the polls. The Peyton Place-like nature of the race has to have increased interest.
The First Model is the Rosamilia-Mantello Model: 5,000 democrat votes, split 50-50 and 4,000 republican votes all to Gordon.
We reject that model for a number of reasons. That election was on the heels of a Democratic petition fraud scandal involving candidates and democratic operatives. We don't have that here. Mantello had been in politics since Gordon was in lederhosen, pushing little girls on the playground. Mantello is a better candidate than Gordon, more likeable and talented. And, the 911 call in the room, the 911 call.
Our prediction for the Mayor's Race (and it based on guess work due to the lack of released polling) is the following.
1. 9,500 people will vote for mayor.
2. Democrat Patrick Madden will receive approximately 3,450 votes (36%).
3. Republican Jim Gordon will receive approximately 2,950 votes (31%).
4. WFP candidate Wiltshire will receive approximately 2,850 votes (30%)
5. Revolution Party candidate Jack Cox Jr. will receive 250 votes. (.026%)
As you can see, turnout will be paramount. A few undecided break a different way and a few people decide to stay home and it becomes even tighter. If we are off by 250 votes, it could be dead even.
Based on what we see now, the most interesting part of this will be whether or not Wiltshire gets more votes than Gordon. No, we are not joking. We believe that Wiltshire is that good a candidate, Gordon that poor a candidate and that the 911 story hurt Gordon. If the Record article hurt, the release of the tape is far more devastating than we first thought. When three Republican women tell us they are voting for Madden and mention the 911 tape, we take notice even if it is only anecdotal.
If Wiltshire was not in the race, do we actually believe be a 70-30 blowout? Yes, we do. Of course, this is just a guess, a feeling a hunch. Give us your predictions.