After downing a half a bottle of Nyquil, 2 Darvocet and some Skittles, we decided to take a look at the Mayoral and At-Large races for the past few cycles. We did it for you, you political/numbers junkies. You can thank us later. After you crunch a few of these digits, send us your theories, your analysis your predictions.
2007
MAYOR
R-Tutunjian 5,422
D-Conroy 4,145
CITY COUNCIL AT-LARGE
D-Campana 4565
D-Brown 4361
R-Bauer 4177*
R-Talarico 4089*
R-Ciccarelli 4077*
D-Foy 3398
The WFP ran three candidates that received a total of 567 votes
* Each Republican candidate also had the Independence and Conservative lines.
2009
CITY COUNCIL AT-LARGE
D-Campana 3837
D-Brown 3654
D-LoPorto 3526
R-Bauer 3086
R-Miner 2663
R-Rogers 2777
2011
MAYOR
D-Rosamilia 5,030
R-Mantello 4,163
CITY COUNCIL AT-LARGE
D-Kopka 4,801
D-Nichols 4,655
D-Wiltshire 4,207
R-Gordon 3,826
R-Greene 3,756
R-Killips 3,304
2013
CITY COUNCIL AT-LARGE
D-Rodney Wiltshire 3,605
D-Erin Sullivan-Teta 3,405
D-Lynn Kopka 3,155
R-Carmella Mantello 3,132
R-Christian Lambertsen 2,070
R-John Cubit 1,863
G-Jessica Ashley 501
The first thing that jumps out is the turnout during a mayoral election year. One expects turnout to be higher when there's a race for mayor. We didn't expect the difference to be so big. In 2011, Gordon could not win an At-Large seat with 3,800 votes. Not even close. He was 500 votes behind the third place winner, Rodney Wiltshire. In 2011, Mantello almost won a seat with 3,100 votes.
In off-year election, you can expect 18,000 votes cast for At-Large candidates. In Mayoral election years, 24,000. Numbers for the mayors race - expect between 9,000-10,000.
The other observation is that the At-Large race has been the Democrats to lose. Since 2007only Bauer (an incumbent) won. After Hank, the only Republican to come close is Mantello, who enjoyed a much higher name recognition than her Republican colleagues. Conclusion: relatively unknown Democrats will win. Republicans need incumbency or high name recognition. Or, a split Democratic vote.
The numbers also show the waning influence of the Independence and Conservative lines. The Democrats are consistently beating Republicans who hold the Independence and Conservative lines. Once upon a time, those lines would make the difference in many races, Now. not so much.
45 comments:
It seems it was tough for you to spit out "Or, a split Democratic vote" cause you know there will be a split vote. Rodney, Kownack and Anasha will give you Gordon as mayor and republican council.
Gulli
McGrath
Bodnar
Mantello
Mcpherson
Read it and weep.
Your welcome Polio. I can't keep on being the only one to force stories down your throat. I'll get back to you all with the truth latter. HG4YN
What r u babbling?
Good analyses. The only items you left out was the anticipated fallout from the 2009 voter fraud situation that did NOT occur, which is useful to consider this year, and one interesting fact from the Council races. If you look at Wiltshire v. Kopka in 2011-2013, it appears that Rodney held and/or increased his appeal to the electorate versus Kopka. That suggests he resonated to some extent to Dems and Independents. Obviously, he has gotten more negative coverage in the last two years, but I detect a more loyal Wiltshire base, and Rodney is a good campaigner. This could be more good news for Gordon, as anyone with a gram of objectivity will admit. I have to disagree with 7:50 on a couple of items. It is my perception that the remainder of Team Troy seem to be rather quiet about their own races, perhaps(all speculation by me) focusing on Rodney. If so, that may be a mistake. I also think 7:50 is optimistic about the at-large seats. As the numbers indicate, at-large races favor Dems, and unless there is lower Dem/leaning Dem turnout resulting from the primary and the related BS, McPherson has some tough history to overcome. History suggests voters do not let arcane election laws influence their voting, and many people think the recent headlines(Faison, etc. not Everett) will fuel voter turnout, although possibly in the Republicans favor if they are perceived as being more anti-crime. I think Carmella gets in, but again, I think Demo made some very accurate assessments about voting patterns, and I see no reason for them to change drastically.
HG4YN thanks for pointing that. It's not like every fucking person didn't know that was an issue. You're a genius.
Harry not gone long enough
Uh, the Dem vote might be split? Thanks Harry jerking off four years. Didn't catch that. Why don't you go post somewhere else. Like tale spin. They could use your wisdom
Elections are cyclical peaks and valleys and you Democrates are definitely in a valley. Your imploding and that means Mayor Jim Gordon and a republican city council majority get ready for it. Oh and sticks and stones may break my bones but names will never hurt me. HG4YN
One determining factor this cycle could be the absence of Oakwood Cemetary voters, since the MacRenna Co went belly-up. More than 1000 in 07, & 09 according to sworn testimony at the 'Crime That Never Happened' trials.
2:00 Names will never hurt you, but you might want to consider that decent communication never did any harm. It is you're not imploding, and it's the Democratic Party.
I can't wait to get my "vindicated 11/03/15" tatoo after Jim Gordon wins the mayor election. HG4YN
Is HG4YN off his meds? What stories is he forcing down throats? I've read his comments and he just rambles on about Gordon winning. Strange. Guess the Polloi wasn't going to discuss the numbers in this race, like they did in the past. Took Harry's friend to do it.
Oh! Please help me! Get him off me Please help me!
I'm trying to find a word that rhymes with liar. Madden?....No. Everett?.......No. Wiltshire? ......YES!
Rodney had a little plan, little plan, little plan.
Rodney had a little plan to Fleese the voters so.
To the DA Rodney went, Rodney went, Rodney went. To the DA Rodney went
And got the old heave ho.
He sent McCassion to the cops, to the cops,
To the cops.
He sent McCassion to the cops then lied to
Jim Franco
If you're SO certain, get it NOW.
5:44 I suspect Harry would not know me if we ran into each other. The only guy from the HT administration that I know reasonably well is Bob Mirch. Frankly, even when I was involved most of those guys did not really like/trust me that much. They thought(with some justification) I was a slightly flaky ideologue.
Phana, talking about 8:14, not you. You're not obnoxious.
HG4YN must be the biggest blowhard this side of Twotonengine. Probably the same person. Why doesn't he put his real name on his posts. It takes two minutes to put your name on it.
Fleece
How low have we sunk when the mention of the name Mirch doesn't result in venomous insults and even reminds people of better days. HG4YN
8:59 - I resent that, I can be as obnoxious as anyone. 7:22 - Kudos on some outstanding writing, but really, Rodney and McCashion as allies?? I have never met Kevin, but if he is a closet Rodney ally, he is one of the best virtual actors in the world. I can see where even an ideologue like myself(and IMO, Kevin is a fellow RWNJ) could quietly vote for Rodney in the event I was completely unhappy with the Rep, but for a True Believer to work directly with a WFP liberal is heading to grassy knoll territory. Finally, Vindicator, when you get your tat, give me a heads up, when Jeff Gordon retires, I will need a new tat, and we can get a quantity discount.
Dudes, didn't know you were back until now. You need better PR.
Glad to see you again. Sorely missed.
FOUR years??? Try "35".
Atrippa Kellum
Thanks for posting these numbers in one place, Makes it so much easier to compare and contrast. I wish the Rensco Bd of Election site posted back election numbers. If they do, I missed them.
McCashion and Rodney were on Franco's radio gabfest spouting the same conspiracy theories. McCashion will ally with anyone who gives him airtime. McCashion would sell his grandmothers soul for five minutes in the spotlight. No grassy knoll, just a weird guy who really wants to be relevant. He has been throwing shit at the wall for years to see if anything sticks. And what the hell is an RWNJ? Really Weird Nut Job?
Okay just googled it, Right wing Nut Job. I never got the sense that McCashion was right or left wing, he is just against everything and for nothing.
Who is funding Team Troy? Have they had recent fundraisers? I haven't heard about anything. Is Anasha actively campaigning? Peggy?
Team Troy hasn't posted on their Facebook page or website since August. Did someone take their ball and bat home?
Gordon will not do as well as Mantello. He is not as well known, not as likeable and not as good a campaigner. He will be lucky to get 3,500. Many people, especially women, want to know what happened the night the cops were called. That hangs over his campaign.
Can Rodney work full-time and do the necessary campaigning? Madden can probably use some compensatory time but Rodney is self-employed. I think if Rodney had a month off, he could do really well. I'm just not sure how vigorous he's campaigning.
Rodney's business is not that successful. He has the time, but people are tired of his act.
McCassion isn't funny and does no analysis. I only read him to see what kind of craziness and slander he's up to. Kind of like driving by a train wreck. Generally incomprehensible gibberish.
Why are you so jealous of harry??
10:13 - I have never met McCashion, but I am basing my guess on his Twitter/social media feed. A combination of his links and vocabulary strongly suggest fellow RWNJ.
Pol, I tend to agree with your Gordon numbers, but am not sure how much impact the call will have. I am wondering if there is a opportunity for Gordon to capitalize on the crime issue, and if that might drive a higher than usual turnout where it is perceived to be an issue.
Regardless of the rumored success of Rodney's business, I would think it is seasonally driven in our area, and he has plenty of time. This is not the ideal time to undertake solar installations, and I would think that sales/marketing prime time would be Jan/Feb onward as utility bills climb and installers want to line up spring work. Also, I believe some tax credits expire this year, leaving the business is a bit of uncertainty for 2016. I vaguely recall Rodney referencing this stuff when he explained his budget vote situation.
Rodney? A budget vote? When did he do that?
Rumored success is a very true statement regarding RW's business. His one employee loves working for him. With his busy campaign in action, the employee now gets to fly the fish solo.
Team Troy reminds me of Take Back Troy - the Facebook n/hd group Said allot and did nothing. Go Pat!
Yes, I'm jealous of his great looks, the fact that he's so beloved, he's in great shape and I'm jealous he has sure h great looking kids. Yup I'm jealous of all that
Is it next to your tattoo that says "Dickhead" ?
dont throw stones about peoples kids when you live in a glass house.
sounds like harry stole your girl the way you carry on about him.
Harry couldn't steal my cleaning lady!
And my glass house has two of my kids living in it with me, where they belong!
Presenting more evidence?
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