Carpinello will likely face Rensselaer County Court Judge Patrick McGrath. This is the first real race for Supreme Court that Carpinello has faced. Hitting the airwaves this early is also a sign that Carpinello (rightly) takes McGrath's campaign seriously.
McGrath should win Albany County and Rensselaer County handily. If that happens, Carpinello will have difficulty finding enough votes in the remaining counties to counter McGrath.
As you can see, the 3rd Judicial District has turned a bright shade of yellow over the past few decades. This is due to an influx of Court of Claims judges doing the work of Supreme Court Judges because so many of our elected judges are sitting on the Appellate Division.
If McGrath does carry Albany County and Rensselaer County by a solid majority, we just can't see Carpinello making-up enough votes in Greene County, Columbia County...which contain a total of 9 eligible voters.
Carpinello's big problem is that his current position, for all of it's import, is not high profile. He does not see or interact with jury pools. He is not the presiding judge on any high profile cases.
Both men are capable jurists.