WAVING THE WHITE FLAG

The final budget hearing took place last night. The angry villagers were there, complete with pitchforks and torches. And who can blame them.

The Council has recommended $600,000 in cuts. The Office of the State Comptroller says we're looking at a $2.4 million deficit. Council President Elect Carmella Mantello, after huddling with her transition team yesterday at City Hall, wants the Council to delay the final budget vote until December 1, 2015, the last day the Council can vote on the budget. The State of New York might have to babysit us once again. The dog ate my homework.

By the way, here's the Comptroller's letter.

Not being a policy wonk, not liking policy discussions, a few questions. There is $600,000 left in the reserve fund. The Council has recommended $600,000 in cuts. Are the cuts practical? Does anyone really care, at this point, if the reserve fund is emptied? Also, yesterday, there was actually some good news. The Appellate Division Third Department affirmed the decision in The City of Troy v 1776 Sixth Avenue Troy,  LLC. This is the case brought by Troy against their former landlords at the Verizon Building. The total award is approximately $350,000, which includes getting some rent back and about $25,000 for the elevator debacle.

Question:  Is that award already figured into the budget or is it found money? This could help close the gap just enough to make the tax increase reasonable. Someone should look into this. But not this guy:

This guy has just given up.

Two years ago, the District 5 Councilman ran for his final term stating: "Through my work, District 5 now has a strong voice and a tireless worker. Together, we will continue to move this city forward." Now, its abandon ship. And by the way, Councilman, you draw a salary. You are supposed to be a professional. You're not a volunteer. Times are tough. Leaders don't walk away. We're tired of criticizing you, Ken but damn.

Anyone else just giving up? Please let us know. Otherwise, get to work. It's hard to criticize someone who does the best they can, especially in tough times. Walking away? Shame on those that cut their constituents loose.

WANTED - ONE PUBLIC RELATIONS FIRM

According to our good friend Ken Crowe II, over to the Times Union, The City of Troy has finally agreed to pay the legal bills of two Troy Police Officers wounded in a recent shootout.

The head of the police union said the city balked for weeks at paying the legal bills accumulated by the two officers who were involved in a shootout that left them hospitalized and a gun suspect dead.
"Nothing," Police Benevolent Association President Thomas Hoffman said was the response he got from City Hall during seven weeks of requests that the city cover the expenses of officers Joshua Comitale and Chad Klein.

On Wednesday, Hoffman went public with his complaint and within hours Mayor Lou Rosamilia's administration said it would pay $5,000 in legal fees for the officers.

 

First off, saying nothing is not balking. Balking would have been more like:

 

Hoffman: Mr. Mayor, will you pay the legal fees?

 

Rosamilia: Yeah, right! Like that's going to happen. Don't think so.

 

According to the story, the city has, in the past, paid the legal fees for officers involved in grand jury proceedings and civil suits. Under the Public Officers Law a municipality will usually pay for the defense and for any judgment in civil cases brought against public employees if they were acting within the scope of their employment. Not sure about criminal matters. What I suspect might have happened is that the city wanted to wait until the officers were cleared by the grand jury. A municipality typically won't be responsible for city employees if their acts are determined to be intentional, such as a criminal act.

 

If so, why the silence?

 

Like the frozen pipe fiasco, the city may have a very good reason for inaction. In the pipe case, homeowners are responsible for lines running to their homes. The city cannot be responsible for every frozen pipe in the city. Doing so sets a terrible and potentially expensive precedent. Not explaining the issue doesn't help. In fact, someone needed to tell Lou, just thaw the pipes and we'll worry about the precedent later. It's just good politics and bad PR not to. Here, again, silence.

 

Say what you want about Tutunjian, but as long as the person(s) involved had never criticized him or his administration, he would have been down at the house with a hair dryer or Bic lighter trying to thaw the pipes himself. Sure, he probably would have been working on the gas line and not the water line but you get the point. The former mayor understood PR. The current mayor never has, never will and now it no longer matters.

DE JAVU

ALL OVER AGAIN.

According to Times Union reporter Ken Crowe II, the New York State Comptroller's Office may be back in Troy.

"The city faces the return of state control of its finances because of a potential $2.4 million deficit in its proposed $68.6 million budget for 2016, according to review by the State Comptroller's Office.
The audit criticizes the city for overestimating revenues for the sale of property, franchise and ambulance fees and sales tax. It notes the city's retirement appropriations may be inadequate.

"The overestimation of these revenues and underestimation of expenditures could have a cumulative negative impact of approximately $2.4 million on the general fund's financial condition," the audit states.

City officials received the audit Tuesday. It is filed with the City Clerk's Office.

"We've got to be monitoring the situation very carefully," Mayor Lou Rosamilia said.

"This is an excellent guideline for it," he said of the audit's recommendations and observations."

Monitoring the situation? Guideline? Less than sixty days in office and time to pull out the stops?

Of course, Rosamilia doesn't shoulder all the blame. We have a city council that could act as a watch dog. The prior administration depleted the reserve fund by approximately $12,000,000 in order to avoid the inevitable problems. Lou almost finished the job of emptying the fund. This is why slight tax increases should be considered even when not absolutely necessary. A 1% or 1.5% increase every year sure beats a 9.3% increase in one year.

Ya' know what? We're almost happy DiNapoli might take over. If that's what it takes, if we need a babysitter, so be it.

To be fair, and we're nothing but fair, it is not solely the fault of elected officials. the residents of old, industrial cities of the northeast need to take an honest look at the facts. Generous pensions, health benefits, cost of living increases and the debt service comprises more than 70% of the budget. Couple that with not actually knowing what will be in the municipal coffers when the budget is proposed and we get a guesstimate, at best.

Given the problem, we welcome State oversight. If our administrations can't do it, maybe Tommy D can.

WANTED - ONE ATTORNEY

According to Tom "Boss" Wade, Corporation Counsel Ian Silverman will not be returning as the city's chief lawyer.

Silverman has been Mayor Rosamilia's only Corporation Counsel. Prior to accepting the Corporation Counsel position Silverman had been an assistant district attorney under Richard McNally. He started his career with a cup of coffee at Bois, Schiller.

Silverman broke from some of his predecessors, namely David Mitchell, for refusing to act as a hatchet man. He was not combative by nature and not a strong presence in city hall. He seemed to get the job done, although the learning curve was initially steep.

In September 2014, Silverman lost the Democratic primary for the new City Court position to "democrat" Keith Gorman, by 23 votes. Gorman went on to face Republican Jill Kehn in the general election. It was a veritable who's that of the legal world. Kehn, who practiced without a license for over five years, would go on to win.

We don't know Silverman's plans but wish him well. There is a recent opening at the Appellate Division Third Department?

Now, the rumors will swirl about Silverman's successor. Traditionally, the Democrats have generally had better attorneys than the Republicans. The best, however, tend to advise from the sidelines and are too successful to hop into the game with both feet. Madden does not have to choose a Troy resident. He can chose an attorney that lives in the county. We think he should give Pat Morphy a call. Or Tom Hagen. If Madden chooses a confidant as his deputy, he'll need one insider that knows government, the players and how to avoid the landmines.

Chances are, it'll be someone we're not even thinking of.

THE NEW ECONOMY

Welcome to the future. This is the new economy. It won't be kind to those that depend on the old economy but it will allow creative and hardworking people to flourish. Grow the tax base, get property taxes down and work on the school district's reputation and Troy could do well.

WHO IS KEVIN GLASHEEN...

...and what dark secrets does he hide?

By now, people who follow Troy politics have heard the name Kevin Glasheen. Rumors abound that he has put fear in the heart of Ian Silverman or that Glasheen will be Deputy Mayor under Madden. Just who is this man? Where does he come from and what secrets does he hide?

Glasheen is an attorney, admitted to practice law in the State of New York in 1976. He is a 1975 graduate of  Boston College Law School. Currently, he is Of Counsel at Barclay Damon, an international law firm that has offices in Albany, NY, Washington D.C., Syracuse, NY, New York, NY as well as Toronto and Boston. Barclay Damon was, until recently, Hiscock Barclay. Glasheen has done work for National Grid and has also done municipal work for the City of Cohoes.

So, we have a few questions for this Kevin Glasheen before he even thinks about stepping into the meat-grinder of Troy Politics:

1) Can we see your birth certificate? We have no record of you before 1958.

2) What happened to Hiscock? What did you do to him? Who is this Damon fella?

3) Your resume says you were any Army Officer. Which army?

4) Boston College, eh. What's the matter, couldn't get in to Harvard?

All joking aside, we don't know how likely it is that Mr. Glasheen will join the Madden administration. We hope he does. He is a good man and a good attorney and he would serve Troy well in any capacity. We hope that capacity would be as Deputy Mayor. That leave the Corporation Counsels position open and it would be the first time in the history of Troy that the top three positions were filled by doctors. Also, we would have to call Glasheen Dr. Deputy Mayor.

So, if he's considering the job, we hope the answer is yes. But we still want to see his birth certificate.

BUDGET PROPOSAL

The Troy City Council did its job this year and drafted specific budget proposals that could reduce the proposed 9.3% by about 33%.  According to the Times Union, "The police department ranks would be cut to 127 officers from the current authorized strength of 130 by eliminating the three school resource officer positions." The three officers would return to their usual duties and no officers would lose their jobs. The general consensus is that the school resource officers are a net positive in many ways and this proposal seems shortsighted.

This proposal has already hit opposition from some people. Also, the GOP at-large candidates offered a platform that would increase the TPD by three officers. The most disturbing part of the entire story was this:

"Most of the items removed from the budget were supplies, equipment and some salary increases."

No more new pens and index cards? These are not the type of cuts that will fundamentally impact future budgets. These are the equivalent of one-shots. What is being done to ensure that a hefty tax increase isn't necessary next year. If Rosamilia's budget is "bare bones" then we will have a repeat of all this year after year. Troy has done a solid job of attracting small businesses. At the same time, costs go up year after year. A year from now, maybe we'll see Gordon and Wiltshire as the real winners.

VOTES COST MONEY

How many of you have wondered how much each mayoral vote cost? Thought so.

We have assembled our crack team of accountants, they have grabbed their respective abacuses (or abacusi) and promptly fell asleep. Here's the breakdown. This does not include money spent in the eleven days preceding the general election. It also does not necessarily reflect the full amount of money spent by other entities (County, State Committees, Unions)  on behalf of a candidate. It does not, nor can it, reflect bribes, pay-offs, sales tax or other scurrilous behavior. We'll have a better picture in a week or so of what was flushed in the days that lead to November 3, 2015. 

Taking the Times Union numbers from their October 30, 2015 article we have the following:

Wm. Patrick Madden (D) - $54, 268.37

Rodney Wiltshire (WFP) - $46,915.43

James Gordon (R) - $26,978.15 (includes almost $10,000 spent by the State GOP on behalf of Gordon).

Jack Cox (RVP) - $6824.15



Madden = $17.96 per vote.

Wiltshire  =  $25.40 per vote.

Gordon =  $11.21 per vote.

Cox = $52.30 per vote.

 Madden easily wins the fiscal responsibility award. Spending more than Gordon, less than Wiltshire but having something more than a Certificate of Participation to show for it.* So, if you're  a fiscal conservative, this may be the candidate for you.

* This article does not intend to denigrate helicopter parents or millennials  who have either fostered or rose to maturity in an era where all are celebrated no matter how badly they suck. This article does not reflect the thoughts, positions or opinions of the Troy Polloi and any resemblance to persons living or dead is entirely coincidental.

MANTELLO ANNOUNCES TRANSITION TEAM

Aside from the fact that a transition teams seems a smidgeon overkill, the choices Mantello made are more interesting for who was not included than for who was included.

According to Record reporter Molly Eadie, Mantello has asked Frank LaPosta (former Councilman, former City Council President and former mayoral candidate); Henry Bauer (former City Council President and defrocked judge); Andrea Daley (small business owner), Dean Bodnar (Dist. 3 Councilman); Mark McGarth (Dist. 2 Councilman-elect) and former City Manager Steve Dworsky to lubricate the new majority's entry onto the City Council.

The selection of LaPosta immediately makes the team bipartisan as he changes political affiliations twice a week.

Notice, to Mantello's credit, not one Republican currently, or recently, steeped in the GOP's city party apparatus. No Tutunjian, no Wojcik, no Crawley, no Gordon.

Hank has been out of the game awhile and was never overly partisan. LaPosta is overly bipartisan but has been staying clear of Troy politics, at least publicly. Bodnar and Daley, again, not rabble-rousers. McGrath is a rabble-rouser but was never a favorite of the city party, who he fought with just as much as he fought with the Democrats. Dworsky? Why people still seek his guidance is beyond us. Best advice, when Dworsky advises there's a good chance you'll want to do the opposite. Also, never say anything you don't want broadcasted to the entire city. Hopefully, the knife in the back doesn't go in to the hilt.

Mantello has also asked the administration for the names and terms of office for people serving on the various boards and commissions that litter city government. One wonders if she'll attempt to trade appointments for a few board/commission seats. Not a bad move as long as she doesn't overreach.

We'll assume good intentions on everyone's part, starting with the premise that both Mayor-Elect Madden and City Council President-Elect Mantello will be reasonable, compromise and not engage in unnecessary partisanship.

IT'S KOPKA

Kopka holds the 5 Council District.

DISTRICT 5 COUNT

starts at 11:00.

Exciting.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Yesterday, we discussed the problem the Republican Party faces going forward. Today, a note about the cloud that circles the Democratic Party. It's no big surprise. It's the Working Families Party.

The Troy Democrats should deal with this issue sooner rather than later. They cannot have this minor party costing them money and votes. This year, the biggest impact the WFP had on the mayors race is money. The primary was a colossal waste of money for Madden and the WFP. Money better spent in the general election. In the Council races, the impact was probably two council seats (we're thinking 6 and one at-large). Will this continue or was this just an exciting fling after a marriage had settled down into dull predictability? Was Rodney the sinewy cabana boy who caught they eye of a middle-aged WFP whose husband was off chasing fresh, long-legged secretaries?

Human nature says the latter rather than the former. Excitement fades. The cabana boy gets deported.  Excitement is difficult to sustain absent really good prescription drugs. The Democratic Machine has three choices when it comes to the WFP: 1) ignore them; 2) call Lenny Montana;* 3) bring them in to the fold.

The first option is short-sighted. Option 2 is attractive and can be done with a modicum of organizational effort. This involves opportunities to ballot, a lot of expended energy and enrolling loyal, lifetime democrats in the WFP. Mirch 'em.

This current crop of WFP'ers has never adequately explained the rationale for their campaigns. We're not saying they have to, only they haven't. There have been a few empty platitudes that don't hold up under scrutiny. That's an article for another day. It does make Option 3 difficult. It's hard to extend an olive branch when the other side has not actually explained why they ran into the arms of the cabana boy. Still, when the average age of the people at Ryan's Wake looked to be about... OLD...maybe you want to take notice. Remember, even if the cabana boy is deported, there's always that tennis pro.

The reality is that 20% of the Democratic candidates on Tuesday night were also WFP candidates. A number of others are probably quite sympathetic to a good chunk of the WFP agenda. Team Troy was a counter-productive effort. We don't blame the council candidates or their voters. These are obviously sincere people who want what is best for Troy.  Leadership had a different agenda.

We suggest Democratic leadership sit down with some of the candidates. They should be encouraged to run for committee seats (if registered D). Once that is done, a few can be put on the Executive Committee. They can have the say they want. If they think the Democratic Machine needs to be reformed, you can't do it from the outside. If the branch is extended and rejected, there is always Option 2. The WFP agenda will not be advanced through the Republican Party. The WFP lost every race they ran on Tuesday and therefore won't be advanced through the WFP. The Democratic Party has no incentive to advance the agenda of people who cost them the council. So, go to marriage counseling, switch country clubs and work it out like adults. Last we checked, a win-win option beats a lose-lose option.

ABSENTEE BALLOT

District 5 absentee ballots will be opened today. There are over four hundred absentee ballots. We are not sure how many came from District 5. Democrats are confident that Kopka has it. They also believe Carol Weaver has a shot at over-taking Kim Ashe-McPherson. A shot, mind you. A possibility, not a probability.

They do not expect any change in the D1 or D6 outcome.


*Extra credit for those of you who know this reference without looking it up.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

We aim to please here at the Troy Polloi. Late last night, we received a message we thought we would share.

Dear Democratus: I am so confused. The Democrats were split and the Republicans kept saying Gordon would win. Franco gave Gordon 3-1 odds, Wiltshire 5-1 odds and Madden 7-1.* But Madden won but the Republicans have a majority on the council but, but, but...Also, my mother-in-law came to visit and won't leave. Please explain all of this.
                                                                                          Confused in Troy

Dear Confused: We have assembled our crack squad of political statisticians, the very same that accurately predicted the election outcome. Let us take a trip into the numbers.

Not too much though. Numbers get boring after awhile. First congratulations to the winners and condolences to the defeated. The Democratic Party had a great night (not without some clouds on the horizon). The Republican Council Candidates had a great night (not without some clouds on the horizon).

Despite a challenge from the Working Families Party, the establishment Democratic candidate (who has never held office and who is not yet a registered Democrat) won easily against Republican candidate Jim Gordon. Technically, it was almost a landslide at an 8% spread (a landslide is 10%). Without Wiltshire in the race, it would have been a devastating defeat. The establishment Democrat (who has never run for office and who was an enrolled blank) also defeated the anti-establishment candidate (who was a two-term councilman, Council President and a registered democrat) easily.

Without Wiltshire in the race, does anyone doubt that Madden would have captured half of Wiltshire's vote? That's would be a resounding show of support. Now, for the districts.

District 1 - A straight up majority win by political newcomer Jim Gulli. Rounding up, it was a 53%-47% victory. Gulli's victory was not decisive in a district that many said was a Gordon stronghold. Gulli got less votes than Gordon did two years before (699 to Gordon's 770) and Ryan received more votes than the 2013 loser,(623 to Scales 590). The Democrats are hoping this loss turns into a win with the absentees. Very doubtful. We think the absentees break the way the general breaks. Counting on the absentees is wishful thinking. If Ryan had bothered to get the WFP line, or Green line, it's a much closer race and maybe a win. This is not a safe seat unless you're a McGrath. Not that McGrath. The other McGrath.

District 2 - McGrath 534 to Robertson's 310. Let the big dog eat. This is McGrath's district whenever he wants it. While his defeat looks like an unprecedented victory, it actually mirrors the thorough ass-kicking McGrath gave a hapless Bob Martiniano in 2009. That was McGrath 537 to Martiniano's 308. This isn't even McGarth's best vote count. In 2011 McGrath received 610 votes. That said, Robertson's defeat looks almost as bad as my mother-in-law after a pub crawl. And a well earned. ass-kicking it was.

District 3 - Bodnar beat Steele by about the same percentage he beat his opponent in 2013. Even if Steele had all the WFP votes, she still loses. A swing district though.

Based on past voting, all three districts seem relatively unscathed by the upstart Team Troy. In fact, it is likely that Wiltshire supporters aided Ryan's numbers. We are not convinced that a different democrat in District 2 would have altered the outcome in any significant way.

District 4 - Doherty's best showing and the worst showing for an R since the Nick Helper debacle of 2009. A Democratic district.

District 5 - Give Kopka not all, but just half, of Bissember's vote and it's a landslide. A landslide against a well-known, Eastside favorite who had five lines. Casey received fewer votes (630) than Seamus Donnelly (740) and we're not even sure what a Seamus Donnelly is. A Democratic district.

District 6 -  Give D'Arcy less than half of Corey Jenkins vote and Donohue loses. Donohue's numbers are almost twice that of Ned's 2013 race but well short of Mahoney's 2011 effort.

At-Large - Without delving too deep into the at-large contest, does anyone believe that but for Team Troy, Weaver or Dresher would be on the Council and not Ashe-McPherson? Again, this does not assume all Team Votes go to the Democrat, only half that vote.

That's a 6-3 Democratic majority. But it's not. Team Troy did run and the GOP candidates did win districts that they should not have. That's a democracy and there's no sense in the Democrats whining about it. The fact that Team Troy cost the Democrats a majority on the City Council does not reduce the GOP majority. The point here is that the Republicans have the most precarious of holds on the Council that could easily evaporate in two years.

When it takes a split opposition vote and 3-4 lines to obtain wins in Districts 1-6 and one at-large seat, there's much work to be done to hold that majority.

That said, we believe this council, with an exception or two, will work with the new mayor and the new mayor will work with the new council. Most will want to make a good impression on the voters. Lest we forgot, it wasn't Bodnar or Gordon that undermined Rosamilia at every turn. It was Wiltshire (D-At-Large) and Zalewski (D-5) that did so, sacrificing Troy's interests to that of their own ambition. With both gone, their minion, Doherty, will get-along-to-go-along. After the past four years, we'll give Mantello and McPherson a fair shake. The council can't be more dysfunctional than the last four years.

*Ironically, better odd than Franco writing for a newspaper again

NEWS ROUND-UP

Madden victory covered by the Times Union here and The Record here

Big surprise of the night, voter turnout down. Down by roughly 25%.

Charter passed.

We are not surprised by the Mayor's Race: See our October 31 analysis, More Numbers.

Not surprised by the GOP majority on the Troy City Council either. See our predictions on those races as well.

We did believe the D's would win two, not one, At-Large seats making it 5-4 Democrat. That's democracy for you.

We'll analyze the numbers later on, as last night's victory sinks in. Let's just say, a look behind the numbers shows ominous clouds gathering for the GOP in Troy.

A quick word as well. Lets be gracious to those defeated. Keep the gloating to a minimum. The Gordon and Wiltshire camps are licking their wounds this morning. They can read numbers. They know they lost. They do not need a constant reminder of that simple fact.

AT-LARGE

CONGRATULATIONS NEW COUNCIL PRESIDENT:

CARMELLA MANTELLO! 

Joining her will be



KIM ASHE-MCPHERSON (R)

AND ERIN SULLIVAN-TETA (D)

DISTRICT 5 - ABSENTEE BALLOTS?

IT'S MADDEN

DISTRICT RACES

UPDATE

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

RYAN'S WAKE

Ryan's Wake: 8:57

The Count:

DISTRICT 3

We have Bodnar (R) at 698 and Steele (D) at 506. Based on our projections, we are calling it:

DISTRICT 3

Our reporter in the field has the following for District 3:

As of 6:30 the following have voted:

212 Democrat
144 Blanks
75 Republicans

This update brought to you by

The Extra-Douchey Energy Drink

TIGHT MAYORS RACE

IT'S NECK AND NECK AND NECK

SHOULD BE EXCITING.

We'll be reporting all night as the results come in. Unless there's any good porn on.

FIRST REPORT

According to Democratic Election Commissioner Ed McDonough turnout at the Knickerbocker Arena is crazy high.

LAST TEAM TROY LIT DROP

All for one....

ENDORSEMENTS

Now, for the much awaited Troy Polloi endorsements.* Yes, many have requested our support but few are chosen. We sat down for an extensive, in-depth interview with each candidate, followed by a complete physical and credit check. Every candidate for each office brings their own limitations and weaknesses. Their own  set of skills that need to be honed. So, if we don't endorse you, please don't take it personally. You are all special, unique snow flakes.

We  applaud all those who are running, be they Democrat, Republican, WFP or Green. Sincerely, it takes a lot to put yourself out there for the acceptance or rejection of your fellow citizen. A loss stings, even when it is expected. The head might say one thing but the heart always holds out hope for a miracle. If you do lose, remember, the voters will still want to be friends. Just give them some space.

DISTRICT 1 - ?

Ryan (D) or Gulli (R)? No endorsement. It has almost been impossible to find out anything about these two candidates.


DISTRICT 2 - STAY HOME

Robertson (D) or McGrath (R)? A hyperbolic jackass V. a simple jackass. We go with a write-in candidate. Any write-in candidate. Vote for Shaggy or Daphne.


DISTRICT 3 - STEELE

Bodnar (R) against Steele (D). We go with Sue Steele. She's a hard worker who will represent the district well.


DISTRICT 4 - THOMAS

Doherty (D)  faces off against Navarra (R) and Colin Thomas (G). We endorse Colin Thomas, the Green Party candidate, because, why the hell not. Lets give him a shot. We also like his campaign photograph with that over-the-shoulder ingénue look. Quite fetching.


DISTRICT 5 - KOPKA

Kopka (D) v Casey (R) v Bissember (WFP). Kopka. No question. She's smart, actually reads the Charter and knows what questions to ask.


DISTRICT 6 - ?

Donohue (R) v. D'Arcy (D). No endorsement. Neither of these guys looks like an asshole so...whatever.



AT-LARGE

Nine candidates, what to do, what to do.

CARY DRESHER (D) - He can be a real star.

ERIN SULLIVAN-TETA (D) - Has earned another term.

ANASHA CUMMINGS  (WFP) - We like the big fella. Could be a breath of fresh air.  Or...

PEGGY KOWNACK (WFP) - She has actually accomplished things, such as the revitalization a little league. That's a lot more than some of the candidates have done. We can't make up our minds between Kownack and Cummings. Neither will win so it doesn't matter.



MAYOR

MADDEN -D No surprise here. Madden has run a positive campaign focusing on his executive experience. Clearly a better choice than Republican Gordon (who just won't promise us a job). According to his detractors, Madden is either a pawn of the Democrat "bosses" or a secret Republican, infiltrating the opposition party. We liked him because he wasn't salivating over the prospect of being mayor.

If Madden doesn't take the prize, we hope it's Wiltshire. Wiltshire's bold move is hard not to admire. He's turned a blowout into what we think will be a close-run contest. This is the first time since Pattison v. Jimino that we don't have a clear idea of who is favored to win. Dull, it ain't. For a blog, that's all you can ask.



CHARTER

No position. This will probably pass if people remember where to find it. The only part of the changes we are unsure of is the Council President changes. Seems clunky and unnecessary. Also, the Council President will have to give up the seat if they want to run for mayor. Lacks drama. A typical Troy thing to do. We do like changing the name to Magna Troy Carta




* The Troy Polloi endorsement has been scientifically proven to be worth an additional +3.7% 

BODNAR TO ENDORSE WILTSHIRE

In a campaign season that has seen its share of surprises, this one is the biggest of all. County Executive Kathy Jimino (R) recently endorsed Democratic candidate for Mayor of Troy, Patrick Madden. Given the family connection, this shouldn't be a huge surprise and has been overplayed by the Democrats. No one expects one sibling to campaign against another, or endorse the siblings opponent. Sure, there are ways to do it but this isn't a big PR coup. It may be important for certain votes within the city. That shouldn't be underestimated.

What is a much bigger deal is that Dean Bodnar (R-3) is apparently endorsing Rodney Wiltshire in the WFP candidate's quest for the mayoralityship. The news was announced by Ken Zalewski on Ken's facebook page. Ken welcomed Dean to the Team Troy Family.

This is a brave move for Bodnar, not known for creating much controversy. We should have known though. When we went back to look at the Team Troy photo, it all made sense.

Dean will likely win so Team Troy can claim another victory.

We did call the Gordon camp for a comment: "Fuck You!" We think they're still pissed about the voter profiles.

A SPECIAL THANKS

We want to thank our loyal readers for making the Troy Polloi the number 1 site solely devoted to Troy politics. We actually wish there was a Republican counterpart. Why isn't there  Republican blog?

Anyway, we know we aren't facebook or twitter. We don't know much about that new-fangled technology. We have been averaging about 1,000 visitors a day. Yesterday, we hit our high of just over 1,600 visitors and today, a new high  of almost 2,000 visitors. We'll never be able to write all those thank you notes. So, whether you love us, hate us or are indifferent, thanks. We couldn't have done it without you.

THE SOCIAL MEDIA ELECTION

Since someone started this, we thought we'd follow up. This may be the first election cycle where social media (Twitter, Facebook etc) is on full blast. Cranked up to 11. Instant messages drafted and shared, responses in almost real time, cats and dogs living together. Total chaos. We don't necessarily approve of this instant access. People have become too casual in their writing and too quick to respond to attacks. We should go back to letter-writing, a lost art. Two years ago we had the same social media but not to this extent. Just about every candidate has a facebook page and a twitter account.

We've compiled a list of facebook likes and Twitter followers for the various campaigns and parties. It will be interesting to see to what extent prominence on facebook or Twitter translates into actual support. We understand using the page for announcements, fundraising invites and scheduling. We wonder if some candidates believe it can take the place of the often exhausting door-to-door campaigning that wins races.

Can we glean anything from all of this, including what the hell 'glean' means.

Troy Democratic Committee - 43 likes

Carol Weaver for City Council At-Large - 100 likes

It's About the 'Burgh: Jim Gulli for Councilman - 130 likes

Kim Ashe-McPherson Troy City Council At-Large - 179 likes

Anansha Cumming Troy City Council - 306 likes

Jim Gordon for Mayor - 328

Troy Republican Committee - 330 likes

Team Troy - 358 likes

Patrick Madden for Mayor - 665 likes

Carmella Mantello for Troy - 676 likes

Rodney Wiltshire for Troy - 903

Councilman Jim Gordon Should Resign - 1500 likes

Troy GOP - 41

Angry Jim Gordon - 53

Team Gordon - 56

Patrick Madden - 83

Rodney Wiltshire - 495

Rensselaer County Dems  - 570

Jim Gordon - 683

Carmella Mantello - 1,121



Don't know what this says. Probably not much.

TROY POLLOI COMMUNITY FACEBOOK PAGE

The Troy Polloi Community facebook page (no affiliation with The Troy Polloi) has compiled a few videos. One highly effective video is of the At-Large candidates answering (or not) questions. The page's author has also transcribed the Gordon 911 call so you can listen and read what was said. Rather effective as well. Whoever produces those videos is pretty good for an amateur.

THE STATE OF THE RACE

We've reached the end of our political symphony. Like most symphonies, it was in four parts. An opening that set the themes, a second act that could put caffeine to sleep, a fast paced third act and now, the rondo.

So, where are we?

GORDON

It will surprise no one that the 911 tape released on October 20, 2015 has held down the Gordon campaign. Until that date, Gordon had run the best, possible campaign that Gordon could run. He kept his head down, nose clean and washed behind his ears before bed down while the two Democrats punched it out. It was a good strategy for a mediocre candidate. We don't mean that to be harsh but Gordon was not a skilled campaigner. He was not a good speaker and came with no readily identifiable issue. He did not distinguish himself in the debates (to be fair, no one did). Instead, Gordon went about his business, letting Wiltshire accuse and Madden deny of all sorts of allegedly nasty campaign tactics.

While Gordon was strolling along the election highway he missed the RR Xing sign and was blindsided by the 911 from State Street. His campaign has been in the fetal position ever since then. Will he be able to limp across the finish line?


MADDEN

Madden ran a traditional campaign that struck us as a bit too old fashioned. His team seemed to play catch-up on social media and too slow to respond to Wiltshire's attacks. There were complaints that he did not rely on the current Democratic crew for advice and too much on people like Mark Pattison and Mark Streb. Those are good people to rely on, in part. Perhaps he is the tortoise, the slow and steady candidate that knew what he was doing all along. Madden performed well in the debates but those have never been an altimeter of victory. His campaign has been consistent on themes of leadership and executive experience. That may be working. Some have noted Wiltshire signs going down on front lawns and Madden signs taking there place. We think he's winning as the anti-Gordon vote begins to coalesce around Madden.



WILTSHIRE


This strong third-party endeavor started with a bang. High energy and lots of enthusiasm. It's always hard to judge the strength of these campaigns because the enthusiasm of the supporters can camouflage their numbers.   The primary was a tight squeeze and Wiltshire almost pulled off something unheard of outside of Beth Walsh's primary victory for Family Court a few years ago. It was an impressive showing. He's a talented politician. Unfortunately, it was followed up by a campaign that had no raison d'etre.

Wiltshire ran an anti-establishment campaign. We love that. What person with a heart doesn't love a good insurgency? The Troy Polloi was born way-back-when to help keep an eye on the Tutunjian administration when the Democrats were at low tide. Outside of a councilman or two, the Democrats held nothing. So, we've been there. There were many times where we thought about remaining neutral or even throwing our support to Wiltshire. Something held us back. Just when we wanted to give Wiltshire the benefit of the doubt he would cast doubt on the whole enterprise.

On the heels of the Brown, McDonough & Co. arrests for voter fraud, Wiltshire sought and received Democratic backing. He did so again in the next election cycle. He wasn't raging against the machine at that time. It's only after he fails to get what he wants that Wiltshire talks about reform or party bosses. We have the feeling that he doesn't want no boss, he just wants a new boss.

The chant that he is the only candidate not "bought and paid for," often repeated by Wiltshire's second, Ken Zalewski, is nonsensical bumper-sticker politics. Who bought and paid for Gordon? Did they keep the receipt? Who bought and paid for Madden? We know who didn't. Labor Unions and the NYC WFP party didn't. A look at financial disclosures show who they purchased.

Wiltshire is a good campaigner and a good debater. He had promise as a politician. We think he's sincere in his progressive beliefs. It just seems like that at each opportunity to put something else ahead of his ambitions, he can't do it. If Madden, at times, appeared not to want the job, Wiltshire wants it too much.

We think he'll do well. We think he may come in second.

That's where we think the race stands. One campaign derailed, one on the slow and steady upswing and one stalled out after a strong start. Maybe we are wrong.

Place your bets. It's over now. Except for the voting.

NON-ELECTION FUN

Lets take a break from election talk for just a few seconds. As everyone knows, Former Mayor Harry Tutunjian has filed an ethics complaint! We know, we laughed too. He even spelled ethics correctly.

Tutunjian’s complaint is directed against the city Assessor’s Office concerning the sale of a building at 205 Fifth Ave. to Christine Lozo, an employee in the assessor’s office.  Tutunjian offered $22,000 for the property, while Lozo and Christopher Denuzio, who is also listed as a co-purchaser, offered $5,000.  The committee that reviews the sales of tax-deliquent properties recommended Lozo as the purchaser.

We happened to have a copy of former Mayor Tutunjian's complaint.:

Dear Ethics Board:

"I am the former mayor of a large upstate New York City. You probably won't believe this letter. I know I don't. Something like this has never happened to me before. I am not what someone would call good-looking. But, when I saw this house in Lansingburgh, and it saw me, I felt a burning that I had never known before..."

Remember the SAT's?

Harry Tutunjian filing an ethics complaint is the same or similar to:

a) O.J Simpson conducting an anger management class;

b) Bill Cosby giving dating advice;

c) Christopher Porco operating a family counseling center.

d) All of the above.

Tutunjian consistently used code to punish his critics. Tutunjian broke contracts because he had a bug up his ass about the lowest bidder. Tutunjian stole RJ Carignan's work, gave it to another insurance agency and then told the city how much money he saved the city. The city subsequently settled the matter out of court for $25,000....

Tutunjian knows, or should know, that the major consideration in recommending a purchaser for a residence is that the purchaser will occupy the residence. Live there. Tutunjian has no intention of living there. He wants to flip the property. We guess his family isn't content on trying to screw over his neighbors in Brunswick with some monstrosity of a project on Hoosick Street.

The person who wants the property is a very nice young woman. She is just starting out and doesn't have the luxury of working for Dad or of having her family be handed county jobs. She also promised to occupy the property. Does Tutunjian really have to be such a douche. Even for him this is a super-douche move.

And that's your Massengill Play of the day. Brought to you by Massengill:

ANOTHER ENDORSEMENT

FOR MADDEN

Still waiting for Congressman Chris Gibson to make an endorsement in this race.

CRACK-UP?

This just in. Our Team Troy informant (someone in the Team Troy facebook photo) has informed us  of a rumor that Team Troy candidates Bob Doherty (4-Dist) and At-Large candidates Anasha Cummings and Peggy Kownack will be holding a press release today to endorse Patrick Madden for Mayor. The original announcement was to be made at 2:00PM. That has been pushed back to 3:00-3:30.

A rumor? Frankly, we don't believe it. However, since our source has proved accurate in the past, we'd thought we'd pass it along.

This has been downgraded to a breaking:

PREDICTIONS

As is our annual tradition, we hereby reveal our predictions (not necessarily endorsements) for election 2015. We've already indicated that Madden will likely win, albeit by a close margin. Now, on to the Council races. We broke out the hashish, burned some incense and called in our crystal ball expert. We believe the GOP will have  a better night than they've had in quite some time.

Staring with the obvious.

District 4 - Unless there is Trump-like anti-establishment dissatisfaction in the air, Councilman Bob Doherty should retain his seat. It's just a simple math equation. We don't know the equation. We're more soft science but the enrollment figures makes the outcome inevitable.

District 3 - We think this one will be close. Sue Steele has lived in that district for a long time and she works. We'll err on the side of Republican Dean Bodnar winning a narrow victory through the power of incumbency and his Gary Cooper-like masculinity. Bodnar has never owned District 3.

District 2 - This one is hard. In a normal time and place, we could see incumbent Anastasia Robertson losing big.  This isn't a normal time or place. Her (sorry Ms. Mantello, we mean Anastasia) opponent isn't normal either. Mark McGrath has high name recognition which for him is a blessing and a curse. Mark, the former District 2 councilman, has slowly spiraled from crazy to bat shit crazy these past few years. A McGrath victory is like having your drunk uncle move in, fun at first but tiresome in a week or two.This one is like a choice between end stage pancreatic cancer and end stage lung cancer. McGrath by an inch. If the WFP is out in force, it could be pancreatic cancer.

District 5 - This should be Kopka but for the enmity shown her by current Councilman Ken Zalewski. Zalewski seems to be on a mission to oust the councilwoman. It would have been nice if Ken had taken this much effort to defeat Republicans. So, we think Bissember, does effect the outcome. Tom Casey is the new councilman. If that happens and Ken wrings his hands in despair, all we can say is, "we told you so." Zalewski does not care about his legacy.

Districts 1 and 6 - The bookends of council districts. These are toss-ups and a split is very possible although we can't say which way. If Ryan wins in District 1 then D'Arcy will have a good night. If Ryan loses to Gulli, D'Arcy may still win down in 6. Madden should run strong here and help D'Arcy.

The likely outcome here is 4-2 GOP.

In  the At-Large race, Team Troy should have little impact. We see a good night for Carmella, as Troy voters may cast a sympathy vote. Mantello wants this so bad she is running television ads. Television ads for a council seat? This behavior must have an official DSM-V diagnosis. Cary Dresher (D) should run strong, as will Erin Sullivan-Teta. They should put away the remainder of the field handily. Cummings and Kownack will grab a good chunk of votes, to the detriment of Carol Weaver (D).

That leaves a 5-4 GOP council.

We admit to being overly cautious. We try and ignore the political rah-rah types that believe all their candidates will all win by crazy, unheard of margins. If this is now a solid Democratic town after its flirtation with Tutunjian for a few years, then it may be 6-3 or 7-2 Democrat. We're just not feeling it. Everything has to break the Democrats way for that to happen. A more balanced council will be a net positive for Troy and the Democratic party.

Our accuracy rate is 66.6% percent. In 2007 we predicted most of the winners. We did have Bauer (at-large), Collier (6) and Krogh (5) winning.